Closing spread
DET -3
Total
52.5
Model margin
+0.9est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
7.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.014EPA / play-0.050
- 45.5%Success rate42.0%
- +0.103EPA / dropback-0.034
- -0.156EPA / rush-0.086
- 8.4%Explosive rate8.3%
- -1.27CPOE-0.40
- 41.6%Third-down rate40.6%
- 63.0%Red-zone TD rate64.8%
- 2.14Points / drive1.74
- 1.9%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DET lead 5–2 since 1999
DET have won 5 straight. Meetings average 49.1 points. JAX are 2-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 19/31 | 223 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D'Andre Swift | 14 | 116 | 8.3 | 2 |
| Adrian Peterson | 15 | 40 | 2.7 | 1 |
| Matthew Stafford | 5 | 14 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Kerryon Johnson | 4 | 9 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Marvin Hall | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny Golladay | 4 | 6 | 105 | 0 |
| Danny Amendola | 2 | 2 | 31 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 |
| Jamal Agnew | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| T.J. Hockenson | 2 | 5 | 17 | 1 |
| Kerryon Johnson | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Marvin Jones | 2 | 5 | 8 | 0 |
| D'Andre Swift | 3 | 4 | 7 | 0 |
| Marvin Hall | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Jesse James | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gardner Minshew | 25/44 | 243 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Robinson | 12 | 29 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Gardner Minshew | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 1 |
| Laviska Shenault Jr. | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keelan Cole | 6 | 9 | 143 | 0 |
| DJ Chark | 7 | 14 | 45 | 0 |
| James Robinson | 4 | 4 | 24 | 1 |
| Chris Thompson | 3 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| Laviska Shenault Jr. | 3 | 7 | 10 | 0 |
| Chris Conley | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| James O'Shaughnessy | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Gardner Minshew | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyler Davis | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
7.23%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.6%
Expected total
47.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.20
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+0.95