2020 · Week 6

Final

Lions

Detroit

QB Matthew Stafford

34·16

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Gardner Minshew II

TIAA Bank Stadium · outdoors · grass · 78°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

DET -3

Total

52.5

Model margin

+0.9est.

JAX perspective

Push chance

7.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Lions

Jaguars

Win probability

  • Jaguars
  • Lions

How each play moved the game.

Jaguars winsLions wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Lionsedge mapJaguars
  • +0.014EPA / play-0.050
  • 45.5%Success rate42.0%
  • +0.103EPA / dropback-0.034
  • -0.156EPA / rush-0.086
  • 8.4%Explosive rate8.3%
  • -1.27CPOE-0.40
  • 41.6%Third-down rate40.6%
  • 63.0%Red-zone TD rate64.8%
  • 2.14Points / drive1.74
  • 1.9%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DET lead 5–2 since 1999

DET have won 5 straight. Meetings average 49.1 points. JAX are 2-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W11JAX @ DET6–52DET
2022 · W13JAX @ DET14–40DET
2016 · W11JAX @ DET19–26DET
2012 · W9DET @ JAX31–14DET
2008 · W10JAX @ DET38–14JAX
2004 · W10DET @ JAX17–23JAX

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDET–JAX
JAXQ1 15:0034Punt0–0
DETQ1 12:461237Touchdown7–0
JAXQ1 7:371062Field goal7–3
DETQ1 1:51675Touchdown14–3
JAXQ2 13:4110Turnover14–3
DETQ2 13:3179Missed field goal14–3
JAXQ2 11:12725Missed field goal14–3
DETQ2 8:021175Field goal17–3
JAXQ2 1:53818Turnover17–3
DETQ2 0:2743Punt17–3
JAXQ2 0:0100End of half17–3
DETQ3 15:0030Turnover17–3
JAXQ3 13:4246Turnover on downs17–3
DETQ3 11:40986Touchdown24–3
JAXQ3 7:441064Touchdown24–10
DETQ3 3:311062Touchdown31–10
JAXQ4 13:3230Punt31–10
DETQ4 12:25741Field goal34–10
JAXQ4 8:11980Touchdown34–16
DETQ4 5:1839Punt34–16
JAXQ4 4:32717Turnover on downs34–16
DETQ4 3:31211End of half34–16

Box score

Individual performances

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford19/3122311

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
D'Andre Swift141168.32
Adrian Peterson15402.71
Matthew Stafford5142.80
Kerryon Johnson492.30
Marvin Hall111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kenny Golladay461050
Danny Amendola22310
Adrian Peterson11180
Jamal Agnew22170
T.J. Hockenson25171
Kerryon Johnson12110
Marvin Jones2580
D'Andre Swift3470
Marvin Hall1260
Jesse James1230

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Gardner Minshew25/4424311

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Robinson12292.40
Gardner Minshew3144.71
Laviska Shenault Jr.111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Keelan Cole691430
DJ Chark714450
James Robinson44241
Chris Thompson34150
Laviska Shenault Jr.37100
Chris Conley1260
James O'Shaughnessy0100
Gardner Minshew1100
Tyler Davis0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -34.3%2.8%7.2%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Lions.

Half-point at risk

7.23%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.6%

Expected total

47.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.20
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin+0.95