Closing spread
DET -5.5
Total
47
Model margin
+1.6est.
DET perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Lions
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.060EPA / play+0.054
- 41.3%Success rate45.4%
- +0.014EPA / dropback+0.166
- -0.210EPA / rush-0.187
- 7.1%Explosive rate7.8%
- -4.51CPOE+0.07
- 34.7%Third-down rate42.7%
- 71.4%Red-zone TD rate53.3%
- 1.52Points / drive2.05
- 2.3%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DET lead 5–2 since 1999
DET have won 5 straight. Meetings average 49.1 points. DET are 5-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Bortles | 22/35 | 202 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Ivory | 17 | 39 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Denard Robinson | 3 | 21 | 7.0 | 0 |
| T.J. Yeldon | 4 | 16 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Marqise Lee | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Blake Bortles | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Chad Henne | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Ivory | 6 | 6 | 75 | 0 |
| Marqise Lee | 4 | 8 | 52 | 1 |
| Allen Robinson | 3 | 7 | 18 | 1 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| T.J. Yeldon | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Julius Thomas | 3 | 5 | 12 | 0 |
| Allen Hurns | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Denard Robinson | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Ben Koyack | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 24/33 | 278 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Theo Riddick | 4 | 13 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Dwayne Washington | 13 | 6 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Eric Ebron | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1 |
| Matthew Stafford | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Golden Tate | 1 | -6 | -6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Theo Riddick | 8 | 10 | 70 | 0 |
| Eric Ebron | 3 | 5 | 70 | 0 |
| Andre Roberts | 1 | 1 | 44 | 0 |
| Anquan Boldin | 6 | 9 | 37 | 0 |
| Golden Tate | 3 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| Marvin Jones | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Dwayne Washington | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
3.05%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.5%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.66
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+1.64