2016 · Week 11

Final

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Blake Bortles

19·26

Lions

Detroit

QB Matthew Stafford

Ford Field · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

DET -5.5

Total

47

Model margin

+1.6est.

DET perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jaguars

Lions

Win probability

  • Lions
  • Jaguars

How each play moved the game.

Lions winsJaguars wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jaguarsedge mapLions
  • -0.060EPA / play+0.054
  • 41.3%Success rate45.4%
  • +0.014EPA / dropback+0.166
  • -0.210EPA / rush-0.187
  • 7.1%Explosive rate7.8%
  • -4.51CPOE+0.07
  • 34.7%Third-down rate42.7%
  • 71.4%Red-zone TD rate53.3%
  • 1.52Points / drive2.05
  • 2.3%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DET lead 5–2 since 1999

DET have won 5 straight. Meetings average 49.1 points. DET are 5-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W11JAX @ DET6–52DET
2022 · W13JAX @ DET14–40DET
2020 · W6DET @ JAX34–16DET
2012 · W9DET @ JAX31–14DET
2008 · W10JAX @ DET38–14JAX
2004 · W10DET @ JAX17–23JAX

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultJAX–DET
DETQ1 15:00619Punt0–0
JAXQ1 11:21847Punt0–0
DETQ1 6:203-2Punt0–0
JAXQ1 5:32415Punt0–0
JAXQ1 2:3032Field goal3–0
DETQ1 1:3633Punt3–0
JAXQ2 14:52426Turnover3–0
DETQ2 13:253-3Punt3–0
JAXQ2 12:2332Opp touchdown3–6
JAXQ2 11:13518Punt3–6
DETQ2 8:2133Punt3–6
JAXQ2 6:04850Touchdown9–6
DETQ2 2:45967Field goal9–9
JAXQ2 0:1900End of half9–9
JAXQ3 15:0033Opp touchdown9–16
JAXQ3 14:02929Field goal12–16
DETQ3 9:20516Punt12–16
JAXQ3 7:06987Touchdown19–16
DETQ3 2:10341Turnover19–16
JAXQ3 0:3539Punt19–16
DETQ4 13:24779Touchdown19–23
JAXQ4 10:033-1Punt19–23
DETQ4 8:191455Field goal19–26
JAXQ4 0:2230Turnover19–26
DETQ4 0:0200End of half19–26

Box score

Individual performances

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Blake Bortles22/3520222

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Ivory17392.30
Denard Robinson3217.00
T.J. Yeldon4164.00
Marqise Lee166.00
Blake Bortles133.00
Chad Henne1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chris Ivory66750
Marqise Lee48521
Allen Robinson37181
Marcedes Lewis22160
T.J. Yeldon23160
Julius Thomas35120
Allen Hurns1290
Denard Robinson1140
Ben Koyack0100

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford24/3327800

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Theo Riddick4133.30
Dwayne Washington1360.50
Eric Ebron111.01
Matthew Stafford200.00
Golden Tate1-6-6.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Theo Riddick810700
Eric Ebron35700
Andre Roberts11440
Anquan Boldin69370
Golden Tate34270
Marvin Jones12150
Dwayne Washington22150

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +5.54.1%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Jaguars.

Half-point at risk

3.05%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.5%

Expected total

44.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.66
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+1.64