Closing spread
JAX -3.5
Total
34.5
Model margin
+1.7est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.071EPA / play-0.036
- 39.8%Success rate39.9%
- -0.086EPA / dropback+0.014
- -0.046EPA / rush-0.111
- 9.0%Explosive rate7.3%
- 32.3%Third-down rate36.7%
- 51.0%Red-zone TD rate48.2%
- 1.23Points / drive1.27
- 1.9%Turnover rate2.0%
- +0.013EPA / play allowed-0.011
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DET lead 5–2 since 1999
DET have won 5 straight. Meetings average 49.1 points. JAX are 2-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Garrard | 19/36 | 198 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Taylor | 23 | 144 | 6.3 | 0 |
| David Garrard | 7 | 42 | 6.0 | 0 |
| LaBrandon Toefield | 12 | 41 | 3.4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
2.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.6%
Expected total
45.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.43
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-1.86
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+1.69