2004 · Week 10

Final / OT

Lions

Detroit

QB Joey Harrington

17·23

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB David Garrard

Alltel Stadium · outdoors · grass · 60°F · wind 14mph

Closing spread

JAX -3.5

Total

34.5

Model margin

+1.7est.

JAX perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Jaguars
  • Lions

How each play moved the game.

Jaguars winsLions wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Lionsedge mapJaguars
  • -0.071EPA / play-0.036
  • 39.8%Success rate39.9%
  • -0.086EPA / dropback+0.014
  • -0.046EPA / rush-0.111
  • 9.0%Explosive rate7.3%
  • 32.3%Third-down rate36.7%
  • 51.0%Red-zone TD rate48.2%
  • 1.23Points / drive1.27
  • 1.9%Turnover rate2.0%
  • +0.013EPA / play allowed-0.011

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DET lead 5–2 since 1999

DET have won 5 straight. Meetings average 49.1 points. JAX are 2-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W11JAX @ DET6–52DET
2022 · W13JAX @ DET14–40DET
2020 · W6DET @ JAX34–16DET
2016 · W11JAX @ DET19–26DET
2012 · W9DET @ JAX31–14DET
2008 · W10JAX @ DET38–14JAX

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDET–JAX
DETQ1 15:00519Turnover on downs0–0
JAXQ1 12:18772Touchdown0–7
DETQ1 8:18314Punt0–7
JAXQ1 6:1933Punt0–7
DETQ1 5:1632Punt0–7
JAXQ1 4:15531Punt0–7
DETQ1 1:52517Punt0–7
JAXQ1 0:0431Punt0–7
DETQ2 13:48414Turnover0–7
JAXQ2 12:1847Turnover on downs0–7
DETQ2 10:391431Missed field goal0–7
JAXQ2 3:401470Field goal0–10
JAXQ3 15:001580Touchdown0–17
DETQ3 5:49419Punt0–17
JAXQ3 4:2632Punt0–17
DETQ3 2:27711Punt0–17
JAXQ4 14:4944Opp touchdown7–17
DETQ4 13:0700Opp touchdown7–17
JAXQ4 13:07836Turnover on downs7–17
DETQ4 8:46654Field goal10–17
JAXQ4 6:3032Punt10–17
DETQ4 5:2334Punt10–17
JAXQ4 4:1633Punt10–17
DETQ4 1:4345Turnover on downs10–17
JAXQ4 1:2237Opp touchdown17–17
JAXQ4 0:46511End of half17–17
JAXOT1286Touchdown17–23

Box score

Individual performances

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joey Harrington11/3312101

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kevin Jones19814.30

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
David Garrard19/3619820

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Fred Taylor231446.30
David Garrard7426.00
LaBrandon Toefield12413.40

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.54.1%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Lions.

Half-point at risk

2.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.6%

Expected total

45.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.43
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment-1.86
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+1.69