Closing spread
ATL -6.5
Total
51.5
Model margin
+2.6est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Falcons
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.101EPA / play+0.066
- 49.2%Success rate43.0%
- +0.157EPA / dropback+0.161
- -0.007EPA / rush-0.021
- 9.1%Explosive rate10.9%
- +1.41CPOE+0.99
- 48.2%Third-down rate43.3%
- 61.3%Red-zone TD rate55.2%
- 2.01Points / drive2.04
- 2.8%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ATL lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 51.6 points. ATL are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Cutler | 19/27 | 216 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Hillis | 10 | 44 | 4.4 | 2 |
| P.J. Pope | 4 | 35 | 8.8 | 0 |
| Tatum Bell | 7 | 34 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Eddie Royal | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Jay Cutler | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 20/33 | 250 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Turner | 25 | 81 | 3.2 | 2 |
| Jerious Norwood | 4 | 18 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 5 | 18 | 3.6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
4.74%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.0%
Expected total
47.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.33
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+2.58