Closing spread
ATL -4.5
Total
50
Model margin
+1.9est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Falcons
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.071EPA / play+0.042
- 40.3%Success rate44.3%
- -0.051EPA / dropback+0.145
- -0.103EPA / rush-0.148
- 9.1%Explosive rate8.0%
- -5.11CPOE+1.23
- 39.5%Third-down rate43.8%
- 60.5%Red-zone TD rate55.3%
- 1.59Points / drive2.28
- 3.0%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ATL lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 51.6 points. ATL are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Lock | 25/48 | 313 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Lock | 7 | 47 | 6.7 | 1 |
| Phillip Lindsay | 8 | 23 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Melvin Gordon | 6 | 18 | 3.0 | 0 |
| KJ Hamler | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerry Jeudy | 7 | 14 | 125 | 1 |
| KJ Hamler | 6 | 10 | 75 | 0 |
| Noah Fant | 3 | 3 | 45 | 0 |
| Tim Patrick | 4 | 9 | 29 | 1 |
| DaeSean Hamilton | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Nick Vannett | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Melvin Gordon | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Albert Okwuegbunam | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Phillip Lindsay | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyrie Cleveland | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 25/35 | 284 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Todd Gurley | 19 | 53 | 2.8 | 1 |
| Brian Hill | 8 | 24 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Brandon Powell | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olamide Zaccheaus | 4 | 6 | 103 | 1 |
| Hayden Hurst | 7 | 8 | 62 | 0 |
| Julio Jones | 5 | 7 | 54 | 1 |
| Christian Blake | 3 | 3 | 31 | 0 |
| Luke Stocker | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Russell Gage | 2 | 6 | 11 | 0 |
| Brandon Powell | 1 | 1 | 9 | 1 |
| Todd Gurley | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Brian Hill | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
1.92%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.2%
Expected total
45.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.05
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+1.90