2020 · Week 9

Final

Broncos

Denver

QB Drew Lock

27·34

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

Mercedes-Benz Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

ATL -4.5

Total

50

Model margin

+1.9est.

ATL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Broncos

Falcons

Win probability

  • Falcons
  • Broncos

How each play moved the game.

Falcons winsBroncos wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Broncosedge mapFalcons
  • -0.071EPA / play+0.042
  • 40.3%Success rate44.3%
  • -0.051EPA / dropback+0.145
  • -0.103EPA / rush-0.148
  • 9.1%Explosive rate8.0%
  • -5.11CPOE+1.23
  • 39.5%Third-down rate43.8%
  • 60.5%Red-zone TD rate55.3%
  • 1.59Points / drive2.28
  • 3.0%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ATL lead 4–3 since 1999

Meetings average 51.6 points. ATL are 4-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W11ATL @ DEN6–38DEN
2016 · W5ATL @ DEN23–16ATL
2012 · W2DEN @ ATL21–27ATL
2008 · W11DEN @ ATL24–20DEN
2004 · W8ATL @ DEN41–28ATL
2000 · W2ATL @ DEN14–42DEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDEN–ATL
ATLQ1 15:00941Field goal0–3
DENQ1 9:51539Punt0–3
ATLQ1 7:001190Touchdown0–10
DENQ1 1:24852Field goal3–10
ATLQ2 13:27975Touchdown3–17
DENQ2 9:1834Punt3–17
ATLQ2 7:121253Field goal3–20
DENQ2 1:44617Punt3–20
ATLQ2 0:2600End of half3–20
DENQ3 15:00932Field goal6–20
ATLQ3 11:0210Turnover6–20
DENQ3 10:5137Punt6–20
ATLQ3 9:28750Touchdown6–27
DENQ3 6:20622Punt6–27
ATLQ3 3:5236Punt6–27
DENQ3 2:181070Touchdown13–27
ATLQ4 13:15631Punt13–27
DENQ4 9:4910Turnover13–27
ATLQ4 9:36212Touchdown13–34
DENQ4 9:05540Turnover on downs13–34
ATLQ4 7:253-1Punt13–34
DENQ4 5:38855Touchdown20–34
ATLQ4 3:5333Punt20–34
DENQ4 3:22567Touchdown27–34
ATLQ4 1:5235Punt27–34
DENQ4 0:4440Turnover on downs27–34
ATLQ4 0:2300End of half27–34

Box score

Individual performances

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Lock25/4831321

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Drew Lock7476.71
Phillip Lindsay8232.90
Melvin Gordon6183.00
KJ Hamler11515.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jerry Jeudy7141251
KJ Hamler610750
Noah Fant33450
Tim Patrick49291
DaeSean Hamilton22120
Nick Vannett11110
Melvin Gordon1190
Albert Okwuegbunam1170
Phillip Lindsay0300
Tyrie Cleveland0100

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan25/3528431

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Todd Gurley19532.81
Brian Hill8243.00
Matt Ryan3103.30
Brandon Powell144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Olamide Zaccheaus461031
Hayden Hurst78620
Julio Jones57541
Christian Blake33310
Luke Stocker11120
Russell Gage26110
Brandon Powell1191
Todd Gurley2220
Brian Hill0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +4.54.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%2.9%

Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Broncos.

Half-point at risk

1.92%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.2%

Expected total

45.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.05
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin+1.90