2012 · Week 2

Final

Broncos

Denver

QB Peyton Manning

21·27

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

Georgia Dome · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

ATL -3

Total

50

Model margin

+1.1est.

ATL perspective

Push chance

7.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Broncos

Falcons

Win probability

  • Falcons
  • Broncos

How each play moved the game.

Falcons winsBroncos wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Broncosedge mapFalcons
  • +0.113EPA / play+0.091
  • 48.0%Success rate46.4%
  • +0.271EPA / dropback+0.234
  • -0.106EPA / rush-0.192
  • 9.9%Explosive rate7.3%
  • +7.00CPOE+5.71
  • 46.0%Third-down rate44.9%
  • 64.3%Red-zone TD rate64.5%
  • 2.26Points / drive2.31
  • 2.1%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ATL lead 4–3 since 1999

Meetings average 51.6 points. ATL are 4-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W11ATL @ DEN6–38DEN
2020 · W9DEN @ ATL27–34ATL
2016 · W5ATL @ DEN23–16ATL
2008 · W11DEN @ ATL24–20DEN
2004 · W8ATL @ DEN41–28ATL
2000 · W2ATL @ DEN14–42DEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDEN–ATL
DENQ1 15:003-2Turnover0–0
ATLQ1 14:1331Touchdown0–7
DENQ1 13:2034Turnover0–7
ATLQ1 11:50619Field goal0–10
DENQ1 9:46644Turnover0–10
ATLQ1 6:5531Punt0–10
DENQ1 5:27440Punt0–10
ATLQ1 2:4937Punt0–10
DENQ1 1:23316Turnover0–10
ATLQ1 0:021044Field goal0–13
DENQ2 10:0538Punt0–13
ATLQ2 8:43855Touchdown0–20
DENQ2 4:391784Touchdown7–20
ATLQ2 0:0600End of half7–20
ATLQ3 15:00730Punt7–20
DENQ3 11:1431Punt7–20
ATLQ3 10:25659Touchdown7–27
DENQ3 7:0834Punt7–27
ATLQ3 5:42837Punt7–27
DENQ3 1:501486Touchdown14–27
ATLQ4 11:483-6Punt14–27
DENQ4 9:3556Punt14–27
ATLQ4 7:2233Punt14–27
DENQ4 6:13945Touchdown21–27
ATLQ4 3:25528End of half21–27

Box score

Individual performances

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Peyton Manning24/3724113

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Willis McGahee221135.12
Lance Ball144.00
Knowshon Moreno320.70
Peyton Manning1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Demaryius Thomas811781
Eric Decker48530
Brandon Stokley37270
Lance Ball12170
Joel Dreessen22160
Matt Willis11140
Jacob Tamme23130
Knowshon Moreno11120
Willis McGahee22110

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan24/3621920

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Michael Turner17422.51
Matt Ryan6193.20
Jacquizz Rodgers331.00
Julio Jones111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Roddy White8111021
Tony Gonzalez710701
Harry Douglas33270
Julio Jones47140
Michael Turner1100
Jacquizz Rodgers0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +34.2%2.8%7.2%7.4%3.0%4.6%2.8%

Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Broncos.

Half-point at risk

7.45%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.9%

Expected total

45.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.43
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.06