Closing spread
ATL -3
Total
50
Model margin
+1.1est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Falcons
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.113EPA / play+0.091
- 48.0%Success rate46.4%
- +0.271EPA / dropback+0.234
- -0.106EPA / rush-0.192
- 9.9%Explosive rate7.3%
- +7.00CPOE+5.71
- 46.0%Third-down rate44.9%
- 64.3%Red-zone TD rate64.5%
- 2.26Points / drive2.31
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ATL lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 51.6 points. ATL are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 24/37 | 241 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willis McGahee | 22 | 113 | 5.1 | 2 |
| Lance Ball | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Knowshon Moreno | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demaryius Thomas | 8 | 11 | 78 | 1 |
| Eric Decker | 4 | 8 | 53 | 0 |
| Brandon Stokley | 3 | 7 | 27 | 0 |
| Lance Ball | 1 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Joel Dreessen | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Matt Willis | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Jacob Tamme | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Knowshon Moreno | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Willis McGahee | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 24/36 | 219 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Turner | 17 | 42 | 2.5 | 1 |
| Matt Ryan | 6 | 19 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Julio Jones | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roddy White | 8 | 11 | 102 | 1 |
| Tony Gonzalez | 7 | 10 | 70 | 1 |
| Harry Douglas | 3 | 3 | 27 | 0 |
| Julio Jones | 4 | 7 | 14 | 0 |
| Michael Turner | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
7.45%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.9%
Expected total
45.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.43
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.06