Closing spread
DEN -4.5
Total
47
Model margin
+6.7est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Broncos
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.193EPA / play+0.086
- 37.5%Success rate45.4%
- -0.176EPA / dropback+0.171
- -0.225EPA / rush-0.025
- 6.1%Explosive rate9.9%
- 29.3%Third-down rate44.1%
- 48.1%Red-zone TD rate60.9%
- 1.06Points / drive1.79
- 3.2%Turnover rate2.0%
- +0.015EPA / play allowed-0.030
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ATL lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 51.6 points. DEN are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Chandler | 9/22 | 128 | 1 | 0 |
| Doug Johnson | 3/7 | 43 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Anderson | 7 | 38 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Tim Dwight | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Ron Rivers | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Chris Chandler | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Dwight | 2 | 3 | 60 | 1 |
| Terance Mathis | 2 | 8 | 42 | 0 |
| Shawn Jefferson | 2 | 5 | 37 | 0 |
| Brian Finneran | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Brian Kozlowski | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Jamal Anderson | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Reggie Kelly | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Ron Rivers | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Griese | 20/33 | 268 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Anderson | 31 | 131 | 4.2 | 2 |
| KaRon Coleman | 7 | 21 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Brian Griese | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rod Smith | 7 | 11 | 117 | 2 |
| Robert Brooks | 2 | 3 | 46 | 0 |
| Mike Anderson | 1 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Desmond Clark | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Howard Griffith | 2 | 3 | 11 | 1 |
| Ed McCaffrey | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Travis McGriff | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Detron Smith | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
1.96%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
66.5%
Expected total
46.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.16
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+6.65