2000 · Week 2

Final

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Chris Chandler

14·42

Broncos

Denver

QB Brian Griese

Mile High Stadium · outdoors · grass · 84°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

DEN -4.5

Total

47

Model margin

+6.7est.

DEN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Broncos
  • Falcons

How each play moved the game.

Broncos winsFalcons wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Falconsedge mapBroncos
  • -0.193EPA / play+0.086
  • 37.5%Success rate45.4%
  • -0.176EPA / dropback+0.171
  • -0.225EPA / rush-0.025
  • 6.1%Explosive rate9.9%
  • 29.3%Third-down rate44.1%
  • 48.1%Red-zone TD rate60.9%
  • 1.06Points / drive1.79
  • 3.2%Turnover rate2.0%
  • +0.015EPA / play allowed-0.030

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ATL lead 4–3 since 1999

Meetings average 51.6 points. DEN are 3-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W11ATL @ DEN6–38DEN
2020 · W9DEN @ ATL27–34ATL
2016 · W5ATL @ DEN23–16ATL
2012 · W2DEN @ ATL21–27ATL
2008 · W11DEN @ ATL24–20DEN
2004 · W8ATL @ DEN41–28ATL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultATL–DEN
ATLQ1 15:00411Punt0–0
DENQ1 12:471043Touchdown0–7
ATLQ1 8:2500Field goal0–7
DENQ1 8:1435Field goal0–10
ATLQ1 7:1435Punt0–10
DENQ1 5:30835Field goal0–13
ATLQ1 1:4233Punt0–13
DENQ1 0:33864Touchdown0–20
ATLQ2 12:1430Punt0–20
DENQ2 11:05756Touchdown0–27
ATLQ2 8:27332Turnover0–27
DENQ2 6:46513Punt0–27
ATLQ2 3:553-7Punt0–27
DENQ2 3:04763Touchdown6–34
ATLQ2 0:5600Touchdown7–34
DENQ2 0:43212End of half7–34
DENQ3 15:00977Touchdown7–42
ATLQ3 10:5334Punt7–42
DENQ3 9:36616Punt7–42
ATLQ3 6:16771Touchdown14–42
DENQ3 3:04410Punt14–42
ATLQ3 0:541027Punt14–42
DENQ4 11:3834Punt14–42
ATLQ4 9:57719Turnover on downs14–42
DENQ4 6:523-1Punt14–42
ATLQ4 4:36621Turnover14–42
DENQ4 2:40410End of half14–42

Box score

Individual performances

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Chris Chandler9/2212810
Doug Johnson3/74300

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jamal Anderson7385.40
Tim Dwight252.50
Ron Rivers341.30
Chris Chandler100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tim Dwight23601
Terance Mathis28420
Shawn Jefferson25370
Brian Finneran12100
Brian Kozlowski1160
Jamal Anderson1100
Reggie Kelly0100
Ron Rivers0100

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brian Griese20/3326830

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Mike Anderson311314.22
KaRon Coleman7213.00
Brian Griese100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Rod Smith7111172
Robert Brooks23460
Mike Anderson12180
Desmond Clark22170
Howard Griffith23111
Ed McCaffrey1350
Travis McGriff0200
Detron Smith0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +4.53.2%6.0%7.3%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.2%

Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Falcons.

Half-point at risk

1.96%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

66.5%

Expected total

46.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.16
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+6.65