Closing spread
DEN -3.5
Total
44.5
Model margin
-0.2est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Broncos
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.196EPA / play-0.059
- 49.5%Success rate41.0%
- +0.323EPA / dropback-0.004
- +0.001EPA / rush-0.153
- 11.2%Explosive rate7.5%
- +6.59CPOE-0.31
- 43.7%Third-down rate34.4%
- 68.3%Red-zone TD rate50.5%
- 2.93Points / drive1.51
- 1.1%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ATL lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 51.6 points. DEN are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 15/28 | 267 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devonta Freeman | 23 | 88 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Tevin Coleman | 6 | 31 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tevin Coleman | 4 | 6 | 132 | 1 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 3 | 6 | 43 | 0 |
| Devonta Freeman | 3 | 5 | 35 | 0 |
| Julio Jones | 2 | 6 | 29 | 0 |
| Austin Hooper | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Patrick DiMarco | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Jacob Tamme | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Aldrick Robinson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Levine Toilolo | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paxton Lynch | 23/35 | 223 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Anderson | 11 | 41 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Devontae Booker | 6 | 23 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Paxton Lynch | 6 | 18 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emmanuel Sanders | 7 | 9 | 80 | 0 |
| Demaryius Thomas | 5 | 7 | 49 | 1 |
| Devontae Booker | 4 | 6 | 36 | 0 |
| Jordan Norwood | 2 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| C.J. Anderson | 3 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Bennie Fowler | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| John Phillips | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jeff Heuerman | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
2.44%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.5%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.60
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment+0.65
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.21