2016 · Week 5

Final

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

23·16

Broncos

Denver

QB Paxton Lynch

Sports Authority Field at Mile High · outdoors · grass · 72°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

DEN -3.5

Total

44.5

Model margin

-0.2est.

DEN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Falcons

Broncos

Win probability

  • Broncos
  • Falcons

How each play moved the game.

Broncos winsFalcons wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Falconsedge mapBroncos
  • +0.196EPA / play-0.059
  • 49.5%Success rate41.0%
  • +0.323EPA / dropback-0.004
  • +0.001EPA / rush-0.153
  • 11.2%Explosive rate7.5%
  • +6.59CPOE-0.31
  • 43.7%Third-down rate34.4%
  • 68.3%Red-zone TD rate50.5%
  • 2.93Points / drive1.51
  • 1.1%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ATL lead 4–3 since 1999

Meetings average 51.6 points. DEN are 3-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W11ATL @ DEN6–38DEN
2020 · W9DEN @ ATL27–34ATL
2012 · W2DEN @ ATL21–27ATL
2008 · W11DEN @ ATL24–20DEN
2004 · W8ATL @ DEN41–28ATL
2000 · W2ATL @ DEN14–42DEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultATL–DEN
ATLQ1 15:00975Touchdown7–0
DENQ1 11:18623Punt7–0
ATLQ1 8:46854Field goal10–0
DENQ1 4:23413Punt10–0
ATLQ1 2:044-11Punt10–0
DENQ1 0:331032Field goal10–3
ATLQ2 11:3930Punt10–3
DENQ2 11:0849Punt10–3
ATLQ2 8:481775Field goal13–3
DENQ2 1:483-1Punt13–3
DENQ3 15:00536Punt13–3
ATLQ3 13:02511Punt13–3
DENQ3 10:0210Turnover13–3
ATLQ3 9:54452Touchdown20–3
DENQ3 7:53821Punt20–3
ATLQ3 3:07740Turnover20–3
DENQ4 15:00727Field goal20–6
ATLQ4 11:01568Field goal23–6
DENQ4 8:201678Touchdown23–13
ATLQ4 2:3849Turnover on downs23–13
DENQ4 1:56529Field goal23–16
ATLQ4 0:1400End of half23–16

Box score

Individual performances

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan15/2826710

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Devonta Freeman23883.81
Tevin Coleman6315.20
Matt Ryan331.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tevin Coleman461321
Mohamed Sanu36430
Devonta Freeman35350
Julio Jones26290
Austin Hooper11140
Patrick DiMarco11130
Jacob Tamme1110
Aldrick Robinson0100
Levine Toilolo0100

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Paxton Lynch23/3522311

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
C.J. Anderson11413.70
Devontae Booker6233.80
Paxton Lynch6183.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Emmanuel Sanders79800
Demaryius Thomas57491
Devontae Booker46360
Jordan Norwood23240
C.J. Anderson34210
Bennie Fowler22130
John Phillips0100
Jeff Heuerman0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.52.7%4.4%2.9%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Falcons.

Half-point at risk

2.44%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

48.5%

Expected total

43.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.60
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.65
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.21