Closing spread
DEN -7
Total
39.5
Model margin
+4.6est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
4.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Broncos
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.032EPA / play+0.059
- 41.4%Success rate45.7%
- -0.047EPA / dropback+0.154
- -0.012EPA / rush-0.056
- 9.1%Explosive rate10.0%
- 36.1%Third-down rate38.2%
- 56.5%Red-zone TD rate55.7%
- 1.69Points / drive1.84
- 2.9%Turnover rate2.5%
- -0.024EPA / play allowed-0.069
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ATL lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 51.6 points. DEN are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | ATL–DEN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEN | Q1 15:00 | 10 | 69 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| ATL | Q1 9:25 | 10 | 73 | Field goal | 3–7 |
| DEN | Q1 3:38 | 1 | 80 | Touchdown | 3–14 |
| ATL | Q1 3:26 | 7 | 53 | Turnover | 3–14 |
| DEN | Q2 14:53 | 4 | 15 | Punt | 3–14 |
| ATL | Q2 12:45 | 5 | 60 | Touchdown | 10–14 |
| DEN | Q2 11:02 | 5 | 39 | Turnover | 10–14 |
| ATL | Q2 9:00 | 10 | 61 | Touchdown | 17–14 |
| DEN | Q2 3:55 | 7 | 45 | Turnover | 17–14 |
| ATL | Q2 1:12 | 5 | 21 | Field goal | 20–14 |
| DEN | Q2 0:19 | 0 | 0 | Missed field goal | 20–14 |
| ATL | Q2 0:16 | 2 | 24 | Missed field goal | 20–14 |
| ATL | Q2 0:01 | 0 | 0 | Missed field goal | 20–14 |
| ATL | Q3 15:00 | 8 | 55 | Touchdown | 27–14 |
| DEN | Q3 10:36 | 8 | 61 | Punt | 27–14 |
| ATL | Q3 7:26 | 4 | 8 | Punt | 27–14 |
| DEN | Q3 4:49 | 7 | 15 | Punt | 27–14 |
| ATL | Q3 1:53 | 6 | 83 | Touchdown | 34–14 |
| DEN | Q4 14:17 | 11 | 73 | Touchdown | 34–21 |
| ATL | Q4 9:28 | 4 | 17 | Punt | 34–21 |
| DEN | Q4 6:58 | 15 | 60 | Turnover on downs | 34–21 |
| ATL | Q4 3:53 | 4 | 12 | Punt | 34–21 |
| DEN | Q4 2:39 | 2 | 11 | Opp touchdown | 41–21 |
| DEN | Q4 2:20 | 6 | 72 | Touchdown | 41–28 |
| ATL | Q4 0:57 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 41–28 |
| DEN | Q4 0:53 | 4 | 27 | End of half | 41–28 |
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Vick | 18/24 | 252 | 2 | 0 |
| Peerless Price | 1/1 | 25 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Vick | 12 | 115 | 9.6 | 0 |
| T.J. Duckett | 8 | 45 | 5.6 | 1 |
| Warrick Dunn | 15 | 33 | 2.2 | 1 |
| Michael Jenkins | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Plummer | 31/55 | 499 | 4 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reuben Droughns | 15 | 49 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Darius Watts | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Rod Smith | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Jake Plummer | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
4.92%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.4%
Expected total
45.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.15
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+4.63