Closing spread
DEN -7
Total
39.5
Model margin
+4.6est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
4.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Broncos
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.032EPA / play+0.059
- 41.4%Success rate45.7%
- -0.047EPA / dropback+0.154
- -0.012EPA / rush-0.056
- 9.1%Explosive rate10.0%
- 36.1%Third-down rate38.2%
- 56.5%Red-zone TD rate55.7%
- 1.69Points / drive1.84
- 2.9%Turnover rate2.5%
- -0.024EPA / play allowed-0.069
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ATL lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 51.6 points. DEN are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Vick | 18/24 | 252 | 2 | 0 |
| Peerless Price | 1/1 | 25 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Vick | 12 | 115 | 9.6 | 0 |
| T.J. Duckett | 8 | 45 | 5.6 | 1 |
| Warrick Dunn | 15 | 33 | 2.2 | 1 |
| Michael Jenkins | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Plummer | 31/55 | 499 | 4 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reuben Droughns | 15 | 49 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Darius Watts | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Rod Smith | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Jake Plummer | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
4.92%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.4%
Expected total
45.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.15
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+4.63