Closing spread
DEN -2
Total
44.5
Model margin
+3.1est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Broncos
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.041EPA / play+0.011
- 48.4%Success rate42.8%
- +0.083EPA / dropback+0.062
- -0.015EPA / rush-0.075
- 9.7%Explosive rate9.0%
- -0.01CPOE+0.58
- 39.1%Third-down rate40.4%
- 56.8%Red-zone TD rate65.1%
- 2.10Points / drive2.16
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ATL lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 51.6 points. DEN are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 18/27 | 173 | 0 | 1 |
| Michael Penix Jr. | 2/4 | 24 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson | 12 | 35 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Jase McClellan | 8 | 15 | 1.9 | 0 |
| Kirk Cousins | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake London | 3 | 7 | 61 | 0 |
| Ray-Ray McCloud | 6 | 6 | 46 | 0 |
| Bijan Robinson | 4 | 4 | 28 | 0 |
| Darnell Mooney | 2 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| KhaDarel Hodge | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Kyle Pitts | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Ross Dwelley | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Casey Washington | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyler Allgeier | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bo Nix | 28/33 | 307 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javonte Williams | 9 | 59 | 6.6 | 1 |
| Jaleel McLaughlin | 4 | 19 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Audric Estimé | 6 | 16 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Bo Nix | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Marvin Mims Jr. | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Courtland Sutton | 7 | 8 | 78 | 0 |
| Devaughn Vele | 4 | 5 | 66 | 0 |
| Lil'Jordan Humphrey | 4 | 4 | 52 | 1 |
| Marvin Mims Jr. | 2 | 2 | 49 | 1 |
| Javonte Williams | 4 | 5 | 28 | 0 |
| Troy Franklin | 2 | 2 | 15 | 1 |
| Nate Adkins | 1 | 1 | 12 | 1 |
| Audric Estimé | 3 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Adam Trautman | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.5%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.43
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.14