2024 · Week 11

Final

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Kirk Cousins

6·38

Broncos

Denver

QB Bo Nix

Empower Field at Mile High · outdoors · grass · 55°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

DEN -2

Total

44.5

Model margin

+3.1est.

DEN perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Falcons

Broncos

Win probability

  • Broncos
  • Falcons

How each play moved the game.

Broncos winsFalcons wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Falconsedge mapBroncos
  • +0.041EPA / play+0.011
  • 48.4%Success rate42.8%
  • +0.083EPA / dropback+0.062
  • -0.015EPA / rush-0.075
  • 9.7%Explosive rate9.0%
  • -0.01CPOE+0.58
  • 39.1%Third-down rate40.4%
  • 56.8%Red-zone TD rate65.1%
  • 2.10Points / drive2.16
  • 2.1%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ATL lead 4–3 since 1999

Meetings average 51.6 points. DEN are 3-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2020 · W9DEN @ ATL27–34ATL
2016 · W5ATL @ DEN23–16ATL
2012 · W2DEN @ ATL21–27ATL
2008 · W11DEN @ ATL24–20DEN
2004 · W8ATL @ DEN41–28ATL
2000 · W2ATL @ DEN14–42DEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultATL–DEN
DENQ1 15:001068Touchdown0–7
ATLQ1 10:311463Field goal3–7
DENQ1 1:3330Punt3–7
ATLQ2 15:00615Punt3–7
DENQ2 12:23982Touchdown3–14
ATLQ2 6:16738Field goal6–14
DENQ2 2:481070Touchdown6–21
ATLQ2 0:25238End of half6–21
ATLQ3 15:0033Punt6–21
DENQ3 13:381045Touchdown6–28
ATLQ3 9:05427Turnover6–28
DENQ3 7:56626Punt6–28
ATLQ3 5:3566Punt6–28
DENQ3 2:45741Field goal6–31
ATLQ4 13:083-3Punt6–31
DENQ4 11:15459Touchdown6–38
ATLQ4 9:03824Punt6–38
DENQ4 4:5339Punt6–38
ATLQ4 3:03515End of half6–38

Box score

Individual performances

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kirk Cousins18/2717301
Michael Penix Jr.2/42400

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Bijan Robinson12352.90
Jase McClellan8151.90
Kirk Cousins100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Drake London37610
Ray-Ray McCloud66460
Bijan Robinson44280
Darnell Mooney24270
KhaDarel Hodge22220
Kyle Pitts1390
Ross Dwelley1150
Casey Washington0100
Tyler Allgeier11-10

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Bo Nix28/3330740

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Javonte Williams9596.61
Jaleel McLaughlin4194.80
Audric Estimé6162.70
Bo Nix252.50
Marvin Mims Jr.341.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Courtland Sutton78780
Devaughn Vele45660
Lil'Jordan Humphrey44521
Marvin Mims Jr.22491
Javonte Williams45280
Troy Franklin22151
Nate Adkins11121
Audric Estimé3390
Adam Trautman0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +23.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Falcons.

Half-point at risk

2.13%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.5%

Expected total

44.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.43
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.14