Closing spread
PHI -9.5
Total
41
Model margin
-0.8est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bengals
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.004EPA / play-0.172
- 43.8%Success rate38.0%
- +0.039EPA / dropback-0.150
- -0.055EPA / rush-0.208
- 8.3%Explosive rate5.1%
- -1.08CPOE-3.29
- 41.3%Third-down rate35.3%
- 50.9%Red-zone TD rate45.7%
- 1.73Points / drive0.93
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CIN lead 3–2–2 since 1999
Meetings average 41.4 points. CIN are 6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 28/58 | 339 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Westbrook | 14 | 60 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Correll Buckhalter | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| DeSean Jackson | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Donovan McNabb | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 29/44 | 261 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cedric Benson | 23 | 42 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 5 | 9 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Chris Perry | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Kenny Watson | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
1.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.0%
Expected total
40.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.82
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin-0.77