2008 · Week 11

Final / OT

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Donovan McNabb

13·13

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Ryan Fitzpatrick

Paul Brown Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 38°F · wind 15mph

Closing spread

PHI -9.5

Total

41

Model margin

-0.8est.

CIN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Bengals
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

Bengals winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Eaglesedge mapBengals
  • +0.004EPA / play-0.172
  • 43.8%Success rate38.0%
  • +0.039EPA / dropback-0.150
  • -0.055EPA / rush-0.208
  • 8.3%Explosive rate5.1%
  • -1.08CPOE-3.29
  • 41.3%Third-down rate35.3%
  • 50.9%Red-zone TD rate45.7%
  • 1.73Points / drive0.93
  • 2.2%Turnover rate2.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CIN lead 3–2–2 since 1999

Meetings average 41.4 points. CIN are 6-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W8PHI @ CIN37–17PHI
2020 · W3CIN @ PHI23–23Tie
2016 · W13PHI @ CIN14–32CIN
2012 · W15CIN @ PHI34–13CIN
2004 · W17CIN @ PHI38–10CIN
2000 · W17CIN @ PHI7–16PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPHI–CIN
CINQ1 15:00425Punt0–0
PHIQ1 12:0830Punt0–0
CINQ1 11:0352Punt0–0
PHIQ1 8:2431Punt0–0
CINQ1 7:241026Punt0–0
PHIQ1 2:003-4Turnover0–0
CINQ1 0:383-1Field goal0–3
PHIQ2 14:12555Field goal3–3
CINQ2 11:1232Punt3–3
PHIQ2 10:02625Punt3–3
CINQ2 7:30732Turnover3–3
PHIQ2 3:11635Turnover3–3
CINQ2 1:16449Touchdown3–10
PHIQ2 0:33326Turnover3–10
CINQ2 0:0900End of half3–10
PHIQ3 15:0039Punt3–10
CINQ3 13:16519Field goal3–13
PHIQ3 10:25261Touchdown10–13
CINQ3 9:2936Punt10–13
PHIQ3 7:32831Turnover10–13
CINQ3 3:43735Turnover on downs10–13
PHIQ3 0:10518Punt10–13
CINQ4 13:42421Punt10–13
PHIQ4 11:201268Field goal13–13
CINQ4 5:1839Punt13–13
PHIQ4 2:4439Punt13–13
CINQ4 1:4830Punt13–13
PHIQ4 1:2530Punt13–13
CINQ4 0:5635Punt13–13
PHIQ4 0:0810End of half13–13
PHIOT419Punt13–13
CINOT830Punt13–13
PHIOT629Punt13–13
CINOT68Punt13–13
PHIOT39Punt13–13
CINOT415Missed field goal13–13
PHIOT10End of half13–13

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Donovan McNabb28/5833913

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Brian Westbrook14604.30
Correll Buckhalter133.00
DeSean Jackson231.50
Donovan McNabb122.00

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Fitzpatrick29/4426110

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Cedric Benson23421.80
Ryan Fitzpatrick591.80
Chris Perry155.00
Kenny Watson100.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -9.52.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%

Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

1.13%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

47.0%

Expected total

40.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.82
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin-0.77