Closing spread
PHI -10.5
Total
35
Model margin
+4.9est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Eagles
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.157EPA / play-0.003
- 34.1%Success rate40.3%
- -0.180EPA / dropback+0.063
- -0.129EPA / rush-0.138
- 8.3%Explosive rate7.5%
- 34.8%Third-down rate41.3%
- 34.6%Red-zone TD rate52.6%
- 0.82Points / drive1.62
- 2.8%Turnover rate2.5%
- +0.014EPA / play allowed-0.085
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CIN lead 3–2–2 since 1999
Meetings average 41.4 points. PHI are 1-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scott Mitchell | 18/34 | 183 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Dillon | 16 | 39 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Brandon Bennett | 5 | 36 | 7.2 | 0 |
| Nicolas Luchey | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Scott Mitchell | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Peter Warrick | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danny Farmer | 5 | 10 | 54 | 0 |
| Peter Warrick | 3 | 8 | 38 | 1 |
| Steve Bush | 2 | 3 | 31 | 0 |
| Brandon Bennett | 1 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Craig Yeast | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Ron Dugans | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Marco Battaglia | 2 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
| Corey Dillon | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Nicolas Luchey | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 23/40 | 198 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Warren | 15 | 42 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Cecil Martin | 2 | 28 | 14.0 | 0 |
| Stanley Pritchett | 8 | 21 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Darnell Autry | 4 | 20 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Donovan McNabb | 4 | 20 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Brian Mitchell | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Charles Johnson | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Johnson | 4 | 8 | 69 | 1 |
| Chad Lewis | 9 | 11 | 66 | 0 |
| Stanley Pritchett | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Torrance Small | 2 | 8 | 18 | 0 |
| Cecil Martin | 3 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| Na Brown | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Donovan McNabb | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Chris Warren | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Brian Mitchell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Todd Pinkston | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
1.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.0%
Expected total
42.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.03
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-2.28
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+4.87