2000 · Week 17

Final

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Scott Mitchell

7·16

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Donovan McNabb

Veterans Stadium · outdoors · astroturf · 31°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

PHI -10.5

Total

35

Model margin

+4.9est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • Bengals

How each play moved the game.

Eagles winsBengals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bengalsedge mapEagles
  • -0.157EPA / play-0.003
  • 34.1%Success rate40.3%
  • -0.180EPA / dropback+0.063
  • -0.129EPA / rush-0.138
  • 8.3%Explosive rate7.5%
  • 34.8%Third-down rate41.3%
  • 34.6%Red-zone TD rate52.6%
  • 0.82Points / drive1.62
  • 2.8%Turnover rate2.5%
  • +0.014EPA / play allowed-0.085

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CIN lead 3–2–2 since 1999

Meetings average 41.4 points. PHI are 1-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W8PHI @ CIN37–17PHI
2020 · W3CIN @ PHI23–23Tie
2016 · W13PHI @ CIN14–32CIN
2012 · W15CIN @ PHI34–13CIN
2008 · W11PHI @ CIN13–13Tie
2004 · W17CIN @ PHI38–10CIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCIN–PHI
CINQ1 15:0039Punt0–0
PHIQ1 13:201871Field goal0–3
CINQ1 5:0838Turnover0–9
PHIQ1 4:05139Touchdown0–10
CINQ1 3:5731Punt0–10
PHIQ1 3:013-4Punt0–10
CINQ1 1:291244Turnover on downs0–10
PHIQ2 11:321017Turnover0–10
CINQ2 7:4947Punt0–10
PHIQ2 6:101043Field goal0–13
CINQ2 1:06733End of half0–13
PHIQ3 15:00413Turnover0–13
CINQ3 13:1733Punt0–13
PHIQ3 12:15937Punt0–13
CINQ3 7:35740Punt0–13
PHIQ3 4:1312Turnover0–13
CINQ3 4:0035Missed field goal0–13
PHIQ3 2:4838Punt0–13
CINQ3 1:03636Turnover0–13
PHIQ4 13:591464Turnover0–13
CINQ4 7:1320Turnover0–13
PHIQ4 7:0138Missed field goal0–13
CINQ4 5:01552Touchdown7–13
PHIQ4 3:12523Field goal7–16
CINQ4 1:4836End of half7–16
CINQ4 0:49117End of half7–16
CINQ4 0:25210End of half7–16

Box score

Individual performances

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Scott Mitchell18/3418311

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Corey Dillon16392.40
Brandon Bennett5367.20
Nicolas Luchey2147.00
Scott Mitchell273.50
Peter Warrick166.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Danny Farmer510540
Peter Warrick38381
Steve Bush23310
Brandon Bennett12190
Craig Yeast22160
Ron Dugans22150
Marco Battaglia2490
Corey Dillon1110
Nicolas Luchey0100

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Donovan McNabb23/4019811

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Warren15422.80
Cecil Martin22814.00
Stanley Pritchett8212.60
Darnell Autry4205.00
Donovan McNabb4205.00
Brian Mitchell177.00
Charles Johnson100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Charles Johnson48691
Chad Lewis911660
Stanley Pritchett23200
Torrance Small28180
Cecil Martin34140
Na Brown1170
Donovan McNabb1130
Chris Warren1110
Brian Mitchell0100
Todd Pinkston0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +10.56.5%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%3.0%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Bengals.

Half-point at risk

1.55%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

62.0%

Expected total

42.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.03
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment-2.28
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+4.87