Closing spread
CIN -4
Total
37.5
Model margin
-5.3est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Eagles
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.059EPA / play+0.072
- 43.2%Success rate44.4%
- -0.020EPA / dropback+0.143
- -0.114EPA / rush-0.060
- 8.8%Explosive rate10.1%
- 40.8%Third-down rate37.2%
- 53.2%Red-zone TD rate68.0%
- 1.40Points / drive1.97
- 3.1%Turnover rate2.2%
- -0.048EPA / play allowed-0.027
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CIN lead 3–2–2 since 1999
Meetings average 41.4 points. PHI are 1-6 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | CIN–PHI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–0 |
| PHI | Q1 13:37 | 5 | 36 | Missed field goal | 0–0 |
| CIN | Q1 10:50 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–0 |
| PHI | Q1 9:05 | 7 | 41 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CIN | Q1 5:27 | 14 | 84 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| PHI | Q2 14:18 | 5 | 11 | Punt | 7–0 |
| CIN | Q2 13:06 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 7–0 |
| PHI | Q2 11:46 | 4 | 2 | Punt | 7–0 |
| CIN | Q2 9:54 | 4 | 58 | Touchdown | 14–0 |
| PHI | Q2 8:02 | 3 | -6 | Turnover | 14–0 |
| CIN | Q2 7:01 | 4 | 11 | Missed field goal | 14–0 |
| PHI | Q2 4:48 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 14–0 |
| CIN | Q2 3:33 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 14–0 |
| PHI | Q2 2:17 | 2 | 0 | Turnover | 14–0 |
| CIN | Q2 2:00 | 3 | 7 | Field goal | 17–0 |
| PHI | Q2 1:10 | 5 | 35 | Field goal | 17–3 |
| CIN | Q2 0:03 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 17–3 |
| PHI | Q3 15:00 | 5 | 17 | Punt | 17–3 |
| CIN | Q3 12:32 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 17–3 |
| PHI | Q3 11:14 | 7 | 63 | Turnover | 17–3 |
| CIN | Q3 7:35 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 23–3 |
| PHI | Q3 6:31 | 1 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 24–3 |
| PHI | Q3 6:20 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 24–3 |
| CIN | Q3 6:14 | 3 | 15 | Touchdown | 31–3 |
| PHI | Q3 4:59 | 13 | 66 | Turnover on downs | 31–3 |
| CIN | Q4 14:15 | 10 | 72 | Touchdown | 38–3 |
| PHI | Q4 10:14 | 9 | 48 | Touchdown | 38–10 |
| CIN | Q4 6:14 | 8 | 34 | Punt | 38–10 |
| PHI | Q4 1:41 | 7 | 20 | Turnover on downs | 38–10 |
| CIN | Q4 0:30 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 38–10 |
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Kitna | 16/27 | 160 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rudi Johnson | 28 | 99 | 3.5 | 3 |
| Kenny Watson | 3 | 20 | 6.7 | 0 |
| Chad Johnson | 1 | 18 | 18.0 | 0 |
| Jon Kitna | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Koy Detmer | 17/31 | 202 | 0 | 2 |
| Jeff Blake | 14/23 | 85 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric McCoo | 9 | 54 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Reno Mahe | 7 | 26 | 3.7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
2.54%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
35.1%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.86
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-8.66
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin-5.31