Closing spread
CIN -4
Total
37.5
Model margin
-5.3est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Eagles
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.059EPA / play+0.072
- 43.2%Success rate44.4%
- -0.020EPA / dropback+0.143
- -0.114EPA / rush-0.060
- 8.8%Explosive rate10.1%
- 40.8%Third-down rate37.2%
- 53.2%Red-zone TD rate68.0%
- 1.40Points / drive1.97
- 3.1%Turnover rate2.2%
- -0.048EPA / play allowed-0.027
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CIN lead 3–2–2 since 1999
Meetings average 41.4 points. PHI are 1-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Kitna | 16/27 | 160 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rudi Johnson | 28 | 99 | 3.5 | 3 |
| Kenny Watson | 3 | 20 | 6.7 | 0 |
| Chad Johnson | 1 | 18 | 18.0 | 0 |
| Jon Kitna | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Koy Detmer | 17/31 | 202 | 0 | 2 |
| Jeff Blake | 14/23 | 85 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric McCoo | 9 | 54 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Reno Mahe | 7 | 26 | 3.7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
2.54%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
35.1%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.86
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-8.66
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin-5.31