2020 · Week 3

Final / OT

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Joe Burrow

23·23

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Carson Wentz

Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass · 76°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

PHI -5.5

Total

46.5

Model margin

+2.6est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bengals

Eagles

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • Bengals

How each play moved the game.

Eagles winsBengals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bengalsedge mapEagles
  • -0.041EPA / play-0.055
  • 44.2%Success rate41.8%
  • +0.005EPA / dropback-0.043
  • -0.122EPA / rush-0.081
  • 6.5%Explosive rate7.8%
  • +0.03CPOE-4.93
  • 37.1%Third-down rate36.0%
  • 52.0%Red-zone TD rate67.6%
  • 1.87Points / drive1.61
  • 2.2%Turnover rate2.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CIN lead 3–2–2 since 1999

Meetings average 41.4 points. PHI are 1-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W8PHI @ CIN37–17PHI
2016 · W13PHI @ CIN14–32CIN
2012 · W15CIN @ PHI34–13CIN
2008 · W11PHI @ CIN13–13Tie
2004 · W17CIN @ PHI38–10CIN
2000 · W17CIN @ PHI7–16PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCIN–PHI
CINQ1 15:00621Punt0–0
PHIQ1 11:05632Turnover0–0
CINQ1 8:3038Punt0–0
PHIQ1 6:561567Field goal0–3
CINQ2 14:5733Punt0–3
PHIQ2 13:223-4Punt0–3
CINQ2 11:4654Punt0–3
PHIQ2 9:5630Punt0–3
CINQ2 8:50313Field goal3–3
PHIQ2 7:331061Field goal3–6
CINQ2 2:47956Touchdown10–6
PHIQ2 1:29560Touchdown10–13
CINQ2 0:162-8End of half10–13
PHIQ3 15:001034Field goal10–16
CINQ3 8:391071Touchdown17–16
PHIQ3 2:2233Turnover17–16
CINQ3 1:45631Field goal20–16
PHIQ4 14:52822Punt20–16
CINQ4 10:041182Field goal23–16
PHIQ4 3:051347Touchdown23–23
CINQ4 0:2100End of half23–23
CINOT418Punt23–23
PHIOT32Punt23–23
CINOT4-1Punt23–23
PHIOT640Punt23–23
CINOT4-2Punt23–23
PHIOT614Punt23–23
CINOT19End of half23–23

Box score

Individual performances

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Burrow31/4431220

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Joe Mixon17492.90
Joe Burrow1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyler Boyd10131250
Giovani Bernard33550
Tee Higgins59402
A.J. Green56360
Auden Tate24290
Joe Mixon23160
Mike Thomas2290
Cethan Carter1110
Drew Sample1110

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Wentz29/4722512

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Miles Sanders18955.30
Carson Wentz9657.21
Corey Clement382.70
Boston Scott351.70
Jalen Hurts252.50
Greg Ward1-6-6.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Greg Ward811721
Zach Ertz710700
Deontay Burnett34190
John Hightower23190
Richard Rodgers22150
Miles Sanders48120
DeSean Jackson24110
Dallas Goedert1170
Boston Scott0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +5.54.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Bengals.

Half-point at risk

3.11%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.0%

Expected total

41.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.13
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin+2.59