Closing spread
PHI -5.5
Total
46.5
Model margin
+2.6est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Eagles
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.041EPA / play-0.055
- 44.2%Success rate41.8%
- +0.005EPA / dropback-0.043
- -0.122EPA / rush-0.081
- 6.5%Explosive rate7.8%
- +0.03CPOE-4.93
- 37.1%Third-down rate36.0%
- 52.0%Red-zone TD rate67.6%
- 1.87Points / drive1.61
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CIN lead 3–2–2 since 1999
Meetings average 41.4 points. PHI are 1-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Burrow | 31/44 | 312 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Mixon | 17 | 49 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Joe Burrow | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Boyd | 10 | 13 | 125 | 0 |
| Giovani Bernard | 3 | 3 | 55 | 0 |
| Tee Higgins | 5 | 9 | 40 | 2 |
| A.J. Green | 5 | 6 | 36 | 0 |
| Auden Tate | 2 | 4 | 29 | 0 |
| Joe Mixon | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Mike Thomas | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Cethan Carter | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Drew Sample | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Wentz | 29/47 | 225 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miles Sanders | 18 | 95 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Carson Wentz | 9 | 65 | 7.2 | 1 |
| Corey Clement | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Boston Scott | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Jalen Hurts | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Greg Ward | 1 | -6 | -6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Ward | 8 | 11 | 72 | 1 |
| Zach Ertz | 7 | 10 | 70 | 0 |
| Deontay Burnett | 3 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| John Hightower | 2 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Richard Rodgers | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Miles Sanders | 4 | 8 | 12 | 0 |
| DeSean Jackson | 2 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
| Dallas Goedert | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Boston Scott | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
3.11%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.0%
Expected total
41.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.13
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+2.59