2016 · Week 13

Final

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Carson Wentz

14·32

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Andy Dalton

Paul Brown Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 42°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

CIN -1

Total

42

Model margin

+3.9est.

CIN perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Eagles

Bengals

Win probability

  • Bengals
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

Bengals winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Eaglesedge mapBengals
  • -0.017EPA / play+0.052
  • 43.8%Success rate45.3%
  • +0.046EPA / dropback+0.116
  • -0.121EPA / rush-0.050
  • 8.2%Explosive rate7.8%
  • -0.81CPOE+2.98
  • 38.3%Third-down rate38.9%
  • 59.4%Red-zone TD rate58.5%
  • 1.86Points / drive1.86
  • 1.8%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CIN lead 3–2–2 since 1999

Meetings average 41.4 points. CIN are 6-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W8PHI @ CIN37–17PHI
2020 · W3CIN @ PHI23–23Tie
2012 · W15CIN @ PHI34–13CIN
2008 · W11PHI @ CIN13–13Tie
2004 · W17CIN @ PHI38–10CIN
2000 · W17CIN @ PHI7–16PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPHI–CIN
PHIQ1 15:003-2Punt0–0
CINQ1 14:05734Field goal0–3
PHIQ1 10:22829Punt0–3
CINQ1 5:44881Touchdown0–10
PHIQ1 1:321252Missed field goal0–10
CINQ2 9:09629Field goal0–13
PHIQ2 6:23826Punt0–13
CINQ2 3:141298Touchdown0–19
PHIQ2 0:0700End of half0–19
CINQ3 15:00864Touchdown0–26
PHIQ3 11:21555Turnover0–26
CINQ3 9:00948Field goal0–29
PHIQ3 4:07638Touchdown7–29
CINQ3 2:30531Turnover7–29
PHIQ4 14:51413Turnover7–29
CINQ4 13:4635Punt7–29
PHIQ4 12:571561Touchdown14–29
CINQ4 6:53218Turnover14–29
PHIQ4 6:02625Turnover14–29
CINQ4 3:5235Field goal14–32
PHIQ4 2:501263Turnover on downs14–32
CINQ4 0:2100End of half14–32

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Wentz36/6030813

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Wendell Smallwood8192.40
Carson Wentz3165.30
Darren Sproles7142.01
Nelson Agholor144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Paul Turner68800
Zach Ertz915791
Trey Burton59530
Darren Sproles66350
Dorial Green-Beckham410290
Nelson Agholor45230
Carson Wentz1170
Kenjon Barner1320
Wendell Smallwood0300

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andy Dalton23/3133220

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rex Burkhead8384.80
Jeremy Hill23331.41
Andy Dalton294.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandon LaFell57951
Tyler Boyd46660
Cody Core22580
Rex Burkhead45280
Tyler Eifert22251
James Wright22200
Alex Erickson11160
Jeremy Hill23120

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +13.7%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.8%

Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

2.12%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.4%

Expected total

44.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.06
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+3.88