Closing spread
CIN -1
Total
42
Model margin
+3.9est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Bengals
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.017EPA / play+0.052
- 43.8%Success rate45.3%
- +0.046EPA / dropback+0.116
- -0.121EPA / rush-0.050
- 8.2%Explosive rate7.8%
- -0.81CPOE+2.98
- 38.3%Third-down rate38.9%
- 59.4%Red-zone TD rate58.5%
- 1.86Points / drive1.86
- 1.8%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CIN lead 3–2–2 since 1999
Meetings average 41.4 points. CIN are 6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Wentz | 36/60 | 308 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wendell Smallwood | 8 | 19 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Carson Wentz | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Darren Sproles | 7 | 14 | 2.0 | 1 |
| Nelson Agholor | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Turner | 6 | 8 | 80 | 0 |
| Zach Ertz | 9 | 15 | 79 | 1 |
| Trey Burton | 5 | 9 | 53 | 0 |
| Darren Sproles | 6 | 6 | 35 | 0 |
| Dorial Green-Beckham | 4 | 10 | 29 | 0 |
| Nelson Agholor | 4 | 5 | 23 | 0 |
| Carson Wentz | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Kenjon Barner | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
| Wendell Smallwood | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 23/31 | 332 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rex Burkhead | 8 | 38 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Jeremy Hill | 23 | 33 | 1.4 | 1 |
| Andy Dalton | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon LaFell | 5 | 7 | 95 | 1 |
| Tyler Boyd | 4 | 6 | 66 | 0 |
| Cody Core | 2 | 2 | 58 | 0 |
| Rex Burkhead | 4 | 5 | 28 | 0 |
| Tyler Eifert | 2 | 2 | 25 | 1 |
| James Wright | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Alex Erickson | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Jeremy Hill | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
2.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.4%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.06
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+3.88