Closing spread
CIN -2.5
Total
47.5
Model margin
+0.1est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bengals
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.111EPA / play+0.107
- 45.2%Success rate48.0%
- +0.165EPA / dropback+0.193
- +0.056EPA / rush-0.081
- 10.7%Explosive rate7.3%
- +6.20CPOE+6.81
- 42.4%Third-down rate47.3%
- 64.1%Red-zone TD rate69.7%
- 2.46Points / drive2.50
- 1.1%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CIN lead 3–2–2 since 1999
Meetings average 41.4 points. CIN are 6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 16/20 | 236 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saquon Barkley | 22 | 108 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Jalen Hurts | 10 | 37 | 3.7 | 3 |
| Kenny Gainwell | 5 | 19 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Will Shipley | 2 | -3 | -1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeVonta Smith | 6 | 7 | 85 | 1 |
| A.J. Brown | 5 | 6 | 84 | 0 |
| Grant Calcaterra | 3 | 3 | 58 | 0 |
| Jack Stoll | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Saquon Barkley | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Kenny Gainwell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Burrow | 26/37 | 234 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Brown | 12 | 32 | 2.7 | 1 |
| Joe Burrow | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Zack Moss | 5 | 11 | 2.2 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Gesicki | 7 | 8 | 73 | 0 |
| Ja'Marr Chase | 9 | 11 | 54 | 1 |
| Jermaine Burton | 1 | 3 | 41 | 0 |
| Erick All | 2 | 2 | 32 | 0 |
| Zack Moss | 4 | 4 | 28 | 0 |
| Trenton Irwin | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Chase Brown | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 |
| Andrei Iosivas | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
7.36%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.3%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.62
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.09