Closing spread
CIN -4.5
Total
45
Model margin
-2.6est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Eagles
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.002EPA / play-0.073
- 41.6%Success rate42.7%
- +0.019EPA / dropback-0.006
- -0.034EPA / rush-0.208
- 6.6%Explosive rate8.8%
- +1.17CPOE+0.51
- 34.3%Third-down rate37.1%
- 55.7%Red-zone TD rate49.2%
- 1.71Points / drive1.18
- 2.4%Turnover rate3.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CIN lead 3–2–2 since 1999
Meetings average 41.4 points. PHI are 1-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 13/27 | 127 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 25 | 106 | 4.2 | 1 |
| Andy Dalton | 8 | 18 | 2.3 | 1 |
| Marvin Jones | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Andrew Hawkins | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Dan Herron | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Brian Leonard | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Brandon Tate | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jermaine Gresham | 6 | 9 | 63 | 0 |
| A.J. Green | 6 | 10 | 57 | 1 |
| Brian Leonard | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Andrew Hawkins | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Marvin Jones | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Foles | 16/33 | 180 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Brown | 16 | 34 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Nick Foles | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Dion Lewis | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Maclin | 4 | 9 | 73 | 0 |
| Jason Avant | 3 | 4 | 44 | 0 |
| Clay Harbor | 3 | 6 | 28 | 0 |
| Riley Cooper | 3 | 7 | 20 | 1 |
| Bryce Brown | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Dion Lewis | 1 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
2.54%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
42.2%
Expected total
44.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.82
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-1.24
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-2.57