2012 · Week 15

Final

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Andy Dalton

34·13

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Nick Foles

Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass · 36°F · wind 1mph

Closing spread

CIN -4.5

Total

45

Model margin

-2.6est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bengals

Eagles

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • Bengals

How each play moved the game.

Eagles winsBengals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bengalsedge mapEagles
  • -0.002EPA / play-0.073
  • 41.6%Success rate42.7%
  • +0.019EPA / dropback-0.006
  • -0.034EPA / rush-0.208
  • 6.6%Explosive rate8.8%
  • +1.17CPOE+0.51
  • 34.3%Third-down rate37.1%
  • 55.7%Red-zone TD rate49.2%
  • 1.71Points / drive1.18
  • 2.4%Turnover rate3.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CIN lead 3–2–2 since 1999

Meetings average 41.4 points. PHI are 1-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W8PHI @ CIN37–17PHI
2020 · W3CIN @ PHI23–23Tie
2016 · W13PHI @ CIN14–32CIN
2008 · W11PHI @ CIN13–13Tie
2004 · W17CIN @ PHI38–10CIN
2000 · W17CIN @ PHI7–16PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCIN–PHI
PHIQ1 15:00215Turnover0–0
CINQ1 14:11644Touchdown7–0
PHIQ1 11:1037Punt7–0
CINQ1 9:5035Field goal10–0
PHIQ1 7:51634Punt10–0
CINQ1 5:18943Punt10–0
PHIQ1 1:25616Punt10–0
CINQ2 14:1534Punt10–0
PHIQ2 13:18559Touchdown10–7
CINQ2 11:403-1Turnover10–7
PHIQ2 9:41717Field goal10–10
CINQ2 7:3744Punt10–10
PHIQ2 5:51311Punt10–10
CINQ2 4:18616Turnover10–10
PHIQ2 1:52616Field goal10–13
CINQ2 0:1700End of half10–13
CINQ3 15:0034Punt10–13
PHIQ3 13:20824Punt10–13
CINQ3 7:493-5Punt10–13
PHIQ3 5:5810Turnover10–13
CINQ3 5:44955Touchdown17–13
PHIQ3 1:1028Opp touchdown24–13
PHIQ3 0:21114Turnover24–13
CINQ3 0:0549Field goal27–13
PHIQ4 14:1200Touchdown27–13
CINQ4 14:05520Touchdown34–13
PHIQ4 12:473-2Punt34–13
CINQ4 11:321340Turnover on downs34–13
PHIQ4 4:0330Punt34–13
CINQ4 3:30315End of half34–13

Box score

Individual performances

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andy Dalton13/2712710

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
BenJarvus Green-Ellis251064.21
Andy Dalton8182.31
Marvin Jones11010.00
Andrew Hawkins199.00
Dan Herron382.70
Brian Leonard263.00
Brandon Tate100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jermaine Gresham69630
A.J. Green610571
Brian Leonard1270
Andrew Hawkins0100
Marvin Jones0400

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Nick Foles16/3318011

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Bryce Brown16342.10
Nick Foles252.50
Dion Lewis133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jeremy Maclin49730
Jason Avant34440
Clay Harbor36280
Riley Cooper37201
Bryce Brown12110
Dion Lewis11-40

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -4.52.7%3.0%4.7%3.1%7.5%7.0%2.7%4.0%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Bengals.

Half-point at risk

2.54%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

42.2%

Expected total

44.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.82
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-1.24
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-2.57