Closing spread
SD -6.5
Total
48
Model margin
+2.9est.
SD perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chargers
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 4–3 since 1999
CHARGERS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 39.4 points. SD are 5-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | ATL–SD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAC | Q1 15:00 | 10 | 44 | Turnover on downs | 0–0 |
| ATL | Q1 10:34 | 9 | 49 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| LAC | Q1 5:56 | 5 | 13 | Punt | 3–0 |
| LAC | Q1 3:09 | 4 | 20 | Touchdown | 3–7 |
| ATL | Q1 1:41 | 4 | 47 | Field goal | 6–7 |
| LAC | Q2 15:00 | 3 | 12 | Punt | 6–7 |
| ATL | Q2 12:55 | 8 | 46 | Touchdown | 13–7 |
| LAC | Q2 9:24 | 3 | 1 | Safety | 15–7 |
| ATL | Q2 7:54 | 13 | 65 | Turnover on downs | 15–7 |
| LAC | Q2 0:57 | 2 | 10 | End of half | 15–7 |
| ATL | Q3 15:00 | 7 | 23 | Opp touchdown | 15–13 |
| ATL | Q3 12:08 | 4 | 4 | Punt | 15–13 |
| LAC | Q3 9:30 | 6 | 23 | Punt | 15–13 |
| ATL | Q3 5:42 | 11 | 72 | Touchdown | 22–13 |
| LAC | Q4 14:56 | 8 | 52 | Missed field goal | 22–13 |
| ATL | Q4 11:33 | 4 | 20 | Turnover | 22–13 |
| LAC | Q4 9:05 | 9 | 35 | Field goal | 22–16 |
| ATL | Q4 5:15 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 22–16 |
| LAC | Q4 2:46 | 3 | -9 | Punt | 22–16 |
| ATL | Q4 1:58 | 5 | 13 | End of half | 22–16 |
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 17/23 | 207 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Turner | 31 | 120 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Jerious Norwood | 4 | 18 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 4 | -3 | -0.8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
4.78%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.8%
Expected total
45.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.40
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.89
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.