Closing spread
SD -6.5
Total
48
Model margin
+2.9est.
SD perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chargers
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 4–3 since 1999
CHARGERS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 39.4 points. SD are 5-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 17/23 | 207 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Turner | 31 | 120 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Jerious Norwood | 4 | 18 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 4 | -3 | -0.8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
4.78%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.8%
Expected total
45.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.40
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.89
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.