2022 · Week 9

Final

Chargers

Los Angeles

QB Justin Herbert

20·17

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Marcus Mariota

Mercedes-Benz Stadium · open · fieldturf

Closing spread

LAC -2.5

Total

49.5

Model margin

-0.5est.

ATL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chargers

Falcons

Win probability

  • Falcons
  • Chargers

How each play moved the game.

Falcons winsChargers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chargersedge mapFalcons
  • +0.007EPA / play+0.002
  • 44.1%Success rate45.4%
  • +0.037EPA / dropback-0.001
  • -0.057EPA / rush+0.004
  • 6.9%Explosive rate9.6%
  • +1.13CPOE-0.74
  • 43.5%Third-down rate41.9%
  • 55.9%Red-zone TD rate60.2%
  • 1.97Points / drive1.97
  • 1.5%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

LAC lead 4–3 since 1999

CHARGERS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 39.4 points. ATL are 2-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W13LAC @ ATL17–13CHARGERS
2020 · W14ATL @ LAC17–20CHARGERS
2016 · W7SD @ ATL33–30CHARGERS
2012 · W3ATL @ SD27–3ATL
2008 · W13ATL @ SD22–16ATL
2004 · W6SD @ ATL20–21ATL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLAC–ATL
ATLQ1 15:00875Touchdown0–7
LACQ1 10:4038Punt0–7
ATLQ1 9:141370Field goal0–10
LACQ1 0:5238Punt0–10
ATLQ2 14:453-4Punt0–10
LACQ2 13:1316103Touchdown7–10
ATLQ2 4:383-1Punt7–10
LACQ2 2:281063Touchdown14–10
ATLQ2 0:3230Punt14–10
LACQ3 15:0033Punt14–10
ATLQ3 13:551072Turnover14–10
LACQ3 9:1532Turnover14–10
ATLQ3 8:271053Touchdown14–17
LACQ3 3:44515Punt14–17
ATLQ3 1:34848Missed field goal14–17
LACQ4 12:121357Field goal17–17
ATLQ4 5:2732Punt17–17
LACQ4 4:191153Turnover17–17
LACQ4 0:34224Field goal20–17

Box score

Individual performances

Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Justin Herbert30/4324511

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Austin Ekeler14473.41
Isaiah Spiller7294.10
Sony Michel11212.00
Justin Herbert133.00
Gerald Everett100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Josh Palmer8101060
DeAndre Carter56530
Gerald Everett58360
Michael Bandy58260
Austin Ekeler78241
Richard Rodgers0200
Sony Michel0100

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Marcus Mariota12/2312900

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tyler Allgeier10999.90
Cordarrelle Patterson13443.42
Caleb Huntley7344.90
Marcus Mariota5244.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kyle Pitts27270
Tyler Allgeier11240
Drake London37230
KhaDarel Hodge12190
Olamide Zaccheaus22190
Cordarrelle Patterson1190
MyCole Pruitt1160
Avery Williams1120
Damiere Byrd0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.52.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.3%2.6%

Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Chargers.

Half-point at risk

2.12%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

47.7%

Expected total

44.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.67
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin-0.52