Closing spread
LAC -2.5
Total
49.5
Model margin
-0.5est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Falcons
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.007EPA / play+0.002
- 44.1%Success rate45.4%
- +0.037EPA / dropback-0.001
- -0.057EPA / rush+0.004
- 6.9%Explosive rate9.6%
- +1.13CPOE-0.74
- 43.5%Third-down rate41.9%
- 55.9%Red-zone TD rate60.2%
- 1.97Points / drive1.97
- 1.5%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LAC lead 4–3 since 1999
CHARGERS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 39.4 points. ATL are 2-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chargers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 30/43 | 245 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Ekeler | 14 | 47 | 3.4 | 1 |
| Isaiah Spiller | 7 | 29 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Sony Michel | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Justin Herbert | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Gerald Everett | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Palmer | 8 | 10 | 106 | 0 |
| DeAndre Carter | 5 | 6 | 53 | 0 |
| Gerald Everett | 5 | 8 | 36 | 0 |
| Michael Bandy | 5 | 8 | 26 | 0 |
| Austin Ekeler | 7 | 8 | 24 | 1 |
| Richard Rodgers | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Sony Michel | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Mariota | 12/23 | 129 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Allgeier | 10 | 99 | 9.9 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 13 | 44 | 3.4 | 2 |
| Caleb Huntley | 7 | 34 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Marcus Mariota | 5 | 24 | 4.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Pitts | 2 | 7 | 27 | 0 |
| Tyler Allgeier | 1 | 1 | 24 | 0 |
| Drake London | 3 | 7 | 23 | 0 |
| KhaDarel Hodge | 1 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| MyCole Pruitt | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Avery Williams | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Damiere Byrd | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
2.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.7%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.67
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin-0.52