2020 · Week 14

Final

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

17·20

Chargers

Los Angeles

QB Justin Herbert

SoFi Stadium · dome · matrixturf

Closing spread

LAC -1

Total

49

Model margin

+3.9est.

LAC perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Falcons

Chargers

Win probability

  • Chargers
  • Falcons

How each play moved the game.

Chargers winsFalcons wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Falconsedge mapChargers
  • +0.042EPA / play+0.043
  • 44.3%Success rate43.8%
  • +0.145EPA / dropback+0.154
  • -0.148EPA / rush-0.141
  • 8.0%Explosive rate7.9%
  • +1.23CPOE+0.07
  • 43.8%Third-down rate45.1%
  • 55.3%Red-zone TD rate60.1%
  • 2.28Points / drive2.02
  • 1.6%Turnover rate1.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

LAC lead 4–3 since 1999

CHARGERS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 39.4 points. LAC are 5-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W13LAC @ ATL17–13CHARGERS
2022 · W9LAC @ ATL20–17CHARGERS
2016 · W7SD @ ATL33–30CHARGERS
2012 · W3ATL @ SD27–3ATL
2008 · W13ATL @ SD22–16ATL
2004 · W6SD @ ATL20–21ATL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultATL–LAC
ATLQ1 15:0037Punt0–0
LACQ1 13:301588Touchdown0–7
ATLQ1 3:57770Touchdown7–7
LACQ1 0:21415Punt7–7
ATLQ2 13:33740Field goal10–7
LACQ2 9:4736Field goal10–10
ATLQ2 8:13875Touchdown17–10
LACQ2 4:511667End of half17–10
LACQ3 15:003-2Punt17–10
ATLQ3 13:53930Turnover17–10
LACQ3 9:311485Touchdown17–17
ATLQ3 1:10837Punt17–17
LACQ4 12:2567Punt17–17
ATLQ4 8:541243Turnover17–17
LACQ4 3:46730Turnover17–17
ATLQ4 0:47317Turnover17–17
LACQ4 0:31549Field goal17–20

Box score

Individual performances

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan21/3222413
Russell Gage1/13910

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ito Smith11423.80
Todd Gurley6193.20
Matt Ryan133.00
Brian Hill133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Calvin Ridley8121241
Russell Gage57820
Todd Gurley23120
Brian Hill11120
Laquon Treadwell1191
Brandon Powell1190
Jaeden Graham1170
Hayden Hurst1370
Ito Smith1130

Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Justin Herbert36/4424321

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Austin Ekeler15795.30
Kalen Ballage7142.00
Justin Jackson393.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Austin Ekeler99670
Tyron Johnson67551
Keenan Allen911521
Hunter Henry68410
Justin Jackson33100
Jalen Guyton1380
Kalen Ballage1260
K.J. Hill1140

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +13.7%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.8%

Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Falcons.

Half-point at risk

2.12%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.4%

Expected total

45.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.16
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.87