Closing spread
LAC -1
Total
49
Model margin
+3.9est.
LAC perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Chargers
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.042EPA / play+0.043
- 44.3%Success rate43.8%
- +0.145EPA / dropback+0.154
- -0.148EPA / rush-0.141
- 8.0%Explosive rate7.9%
- +1.23CPOE+0.07
- 43.8%Third-down rate45.1%
- 55.3%Red-zone TD rate60.1%
- 2.28Points / drive2.02
- 1.6%Turnover rate1.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LAC lead 4–3 since 1999
CHARGERS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 39.4 points. LAC are 5-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 21/32 | 224 | 1 | 3 |
| Russell Gage | 1/1 | 39 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ito Smith | 11 | 42 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Todd Gurley | 6 | 19 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Brian Hill | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvin Ridley | 8 | 12 | 124 | 1 |
| Russell Gage | 5 | 7 | 82 | 0 |
| Todd Gurley | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Brian Hill | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Laquon Treadwell | 1 | 1 | 9 | 1 |
| Brandon Powell | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Jaeden Graham | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Hayden Hurst | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Ito Smith | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Chargers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 36/44 | 243 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Ekeler | 15 | 79 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Kalen Ballage | 7 | 14 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Justin Jackson | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Ekeler | 9 | 9 | 67 | 0 |
| Tyron Johnson | 6 | 7 | 55 | 1 |
| Keenan Allen | 9 | 11 | 52 | 1 |
| Hunter Henry | 6 | 8 | 41 | 0 |
| Justin Jackson | 3 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Jalen Guyton | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Kalen Ballage | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| K.J. Hill | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
2.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.4%
Expected total
45.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.16
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.87