2024 · Week 13

Final

Chargers

Los Angeles

QB Justin Herbert

17·13

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Kirk Cousins

Mercedes-Benz Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

LAC -1

Total

47

Model margin

+1.6est.

ATL perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chargers

Falcons

Win probability

  • Falcons
  • Chargers

How each play moved the game.

Falcons winsChargers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chargersedge mapFalcons
  • +0.044EPA / play+0.041
  • 42.3%Success rate48.4%
  • +0.127EPA / dropback+0.083
  • -0.079EPA / rush-0.015
  • 9.2%Explosive rate9.7%
  • +1.69CPOE-0.01
  • 40.1%Third-down rate39.1%
  • 59.6%Red-zone TD rate56.8%
  • 2.25Points / drive2.10
  • 0.8%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

LAC lead 4–3 since 1999

CHARGERS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 39.4 points. ATL are 2-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2022 · W9LAC @ ATL20–17CHARGERS
2020 · W14ATL @ LAC17–20CHARGERS
2016 · W7SD @ ATL33–30CHARGERS
2012 · W3ATL @ SD27–3ATL
2008 · W13ATL @ SD22–16ATL
2004 · W6SD @ ATL20–21ATL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLAC–ATL
ATLQ1 15:001253Missed field goal0–0
LACQ1 8:3334Turnover0–0
ATLQ1 7:00625Touchdown0–7
LACQ1 3:59441Field goal3–7
ATLQ1 1:39424Turnover3–7
LACQ2 14:52633Field goal6–7
ATLQ2 11:0836Punt6–7
LACQ2 8:531568Field goal9–7
ATLQ2 0:58520Punt9–7
LACQ2 0:1200End of half9–7
LACQ3 15:00411Punt9–7
ATLQ3 13:211256Field goal9–10
LACQ3 7:2337Punt9–10
ATLQ3 5:18924Opp touchdown17–10
ATLQ3 1:39562Field goal17–13
LACQ3 0:0349Turnover on downs17–13
ATLQ4 14:041026Turnover17–13
LACQ4 9:03417Punt17–13
ATLQ4 6:051554Turnover17–13
LACQ4 0:4000End of half17–13

Box score

Individual performances

Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Justin Herbert16/2314700

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Gus Edwards6325.30
Kimani Vidal4205.00
Derius Davis133.00
Justin Herbert510.20
Hassan Haskins100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Ladd McConkey9121170
Quentin Johnston24120
Josh Palmer11110
Stone Smartt1230
Derius Davis1130
Gus Edwards1110
Tucker Fisk1110
Will Dissly0100

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kirk Cousins24/3924504

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Bijan Robinson261023.91
Tyler Allgeier8162.00
Kirk Cousins133.00
Ray-Ray McCloud1-2-2.00
Drake London1-3-3.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Ray-Ray McCloud46950
Drake London916860
Bijan Robinson66330
Darnell Mooney36200
Tyler Allgeier1160
Charlie Woerner1150
Kyle Pitts0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -14.1%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Chargers.

Half-point at risk

2.12%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.5%

Expected total

44.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.70
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.64
  • Expected margin+1.65