Closing spread
LAC -1
Total
47
Model margin
+1.6est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Falcons
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.044EPA / play+0.041
- 42.3%Success rate48.4%
- +0.127EPA / dropback+0.083
- -0.079EPA / rush-0.015
- 9.2%Explosive rate9.7%
- +1.69CPOE-0.01
- 40.1%Third-down rate39.1%
- 59.6%Red-zone TD rate56.8%
- 2.25Points / drive2.10
- 0.8%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LAC lead 4–3 since 1999
CHARGERS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 39.4 points. ATL are 2-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chargers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 16/23 | 147 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gus Edwards | 6 | 32 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Kimani Vidal | 4 | 20 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Derius Davis | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Justin Herbert | 5 | 1 | 0.2 | 0 |
| Hassan Haskins | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ladd McConkey | 9 | 12 | 117 | 0 |
| Quentin Johnston | 2 | 4 | 12 | 0 |
| Josh Palmer | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Stone Smartt | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Derius Davis | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Gus Edwards | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Tucker Fisk | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Will Dissly | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 24/39 | 245 | 0 | 4 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson | 26 | 102 | 3.9 | 1 |
| Tyler Allgeier | 8 | 16 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Kirk Cousins | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Ray-Ray McCloud | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
| Drake London | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ray-Ray McCloud | 4 | 6 | 95 | 0 |
| Drake London | 9 | 16 | 86 | 0 |
| Bijan Robinson | 6 | 6 | 33 | 0 |
| Darnell Mooney | 3 | 6 | 20 | 0 |
| Tyler Allgeier | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Charlie Woerner | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Kyle Pitts | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
2.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.5%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.70
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.64
- Expected margin+1.65