Closing spread
ATL -5.5
Total
43
Model margin
+2.3est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Falcons
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 4–3 since 1999
CHARGERS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 39.4 points. ATL are 2-5 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SD–ATL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAC | Q1 15:00 | 5 | 21 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| ATL | Q1 12:18 | 3 | -5 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 11:34 | 7 | 29 | Punt | 0–0 |
| ATL | Q1 7:16 | 7 | 30 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 3:56 | 4 | 15 | Punt | 0–0 |
| ATL | Q1 1:39 | 4 | 20 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q2 14:30 | 4 | 9 | Turnover on downs | 0–0 |
| ATL | Q2 13:13 | 5 | 58 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| LAC | Q2 10:24 | 16 | 61 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| ATL | Q2 1:18 | 5 | 13 | Turnover | 7–7 |
| LAC | Q2 0:38 | 3 | 39 | Touchdown | 14–7 |
| ATL | Q2 0:18 | 1 | 5 | End of half | 14–7 |
| ATL | Q3 15:00 | 4 | -5 | Punt | 14–7 |
| LAC | Q3 13:23 | 6 | 19 | Punt | 14–7 |
| ATL | Q3 9:18 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 14–7 |
| LAC | Q3 8:23 | 6 | 33 | Field goal | 17–7 |
| ATL | Q3 5:10 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 17–7 |
| LAC | Q3 3:19 | 6 | 23 | Punt | 17–7 |
| ATL | Q4 14:52 | 4 | 75 | Touchdown | 17–14 |
| LAC | Q4 13:09 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 17–14 |
| ATL | Q4 11:14 | 3 | 42 | Touchdown | 17–21 |
| LAC | Q4 10:12 | 7 | 65 | Field goal | 20–21 |
| ATL | Q4 6:01 | 6 | 60 | End of half | 20–21 |
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Vick | 12/21 | 218 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.J. Duckett | 11 | 45 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Mike Vick | 9 | 35 | 3.9 | 1 |
| Warrick Dunn | 5 | 13 | 2.6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
3.09%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.1%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.31
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.26
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.