Closing spread
ATL -4.5
Total
52.5
Model margin
+4.1est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Falcons
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 4–3 since 1999
CHARGERS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 39.4 points. ATL are 2-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 22/34 | 273 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tevin Coleman | 8 | 64 | 8.0 | 1 |
| Devonta Freeman | 15 | 58 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julio Jones | 9 | 15 | 174 | 0 |
| Devonta Freeman | 5 | 6 | 42 | 0 |
| Jacob Tamme | 1 | 3 | 17 | 1 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 2 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| Tevin Coleman | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Justin Hardy | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Levine Toilolo | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Patrick DiMarco | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Aldrick Robinson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
1.97%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.9%
Expected total
45.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.57
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+4.07
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.