Closing spread
SD -3
Total
47
Model margin
+0.5est.
SD perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Chargers
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 4–3 since 1999
CHARGERS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 39.4 points. SD are 5-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 30/40 | 275 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Turner | 14 | 80 | 5.7 | 1 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 10 | 32 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Gonzalez | 9 | 12 | 91 | 1 |
| Julio Jones | 5 | 7 | 67 | 1 |
| Roddy White | 5 | 8 | 55 | 0 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 5 | 5 | 35 | 1 |
| Harry Douglas | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Michael Turner | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Michael Palmer | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Tommy Gallarda | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
7.40%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.4%
Expected total
45.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.06
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+0.51
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.