Closing spread
NYJ -4
Total
45
Model margin
+1.4est.
SF perspective
Push chance
2.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- 49ers
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.038EPA / play-0.056
- 47.0%Success rate43.6%
- +0.031EPA / dropback-0.002
- +0.048EPA / rush-0.150
- 9.0%Explosive rate8.4%
- +3.75CPOE+1.59
- 40.6%Third-down rate37.4%
- 55.9%Red-zone TD rate53.3%
- 1.85Points / drive1.64
- 3.0%Turnover rate3.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 5–2 since 1999
SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.9 points. SF are 6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 20/31 | 137 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Jones | 10 | 56 | 5.6 | 1 |
| Brett Favre | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 1 |
| Leon Washington | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Hill | 28/39 | 285 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 14 | 52 | 3.7 | 0 |
| DeShaun Foster | 16 | 35 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Shaun Hill | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
2.37%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.0%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.03
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.45