Closing spread
NYJ -4
Total
45
Model margin
+1.4est.
SF perspective
Push chance
2.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- 49ers
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.038EPA / play-0.056
- 47.0%Success rate43.6%
- +0.031EPA / dropback-0.002
- +0.048EPA / rush-0.150
- 9.0%Explosive rate8.4%
- +3.75CPOE+1.59
- 40.6%Third-down rate37.4%
- 55.9%Red-zone TD rate53.3%
- 1.85Points / drive1.64
- 3.0%Turnover rate3.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 5–2 since 1999
SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.9 points. SF are 6-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NYJ–SF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYJ | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SF | Q1 13:42 | 10 | 50 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| NYJ | Q1 8:47 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SF | Q1 6:44 | 8 | 75 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| NYJ | Q1 2:16 | 5 | 22 | Punt | 0–7 |
| SF | Q2 14:51 | 4 | 15 | Punt | 0–7 |
| NYJ | Q2 12:38 | 9 | 61 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| SF | Q2 7:17 | 4 | 14 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| SF | Q2 5:06 | 1 | 3 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| SF | Q2 4:21 | 10 | 53 | Touchdown | 7–14 |
| NYJ | Q2 0:46 | 3 | 5 | End of half | 7–14 |
| SF | Q3 15:00 | 5 | 11 | Punt | 7–14 |
| NYJ | Q3 12:48 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 7–14 |
| SF | Q3 11:37 | 7 | 26 | Turnover | 7–14 |
| NYJ | Q3 7:21 | 4 | 45 | Touchdown | 14–14 |
| SF | Q3 5:24 | 13 | 62 | Field goal | 14–17 |
| NYJ | Q4 14:44 | 4 | 8 | Punt | 14–17 |
| SF | Q4 12:40 | 10 | 51 | Touchdown | 14–24 |
| NYJ | Q4 6:05 | 4 | 7 | Punt | 14–24 |
| SF | Q4 4:19 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 14–24 |
| NYJ | Q4 2:28 | 5 | 16 | Turnover | 14–24 |
| SF | Q4 1:52 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 14–24 |
| NYJ | Q4 0:44 | 4 | -8 | Turnover on downs | 14–24 |
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 20/31 | 137 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Jones | 10 | 56 | 5.6 | 1 |
| Brett Favre | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 1 |
| Leon Washington | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Hill | 28/39 | 285 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 14 | 52 | 3.7 | 0 |
| DeShaun Foster | 16 | 35 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Shaun Hill | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
2.37%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.0%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.03
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.45