Closing spread
NYJ -9.5
Total
43
Model margin
+6.0est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jets
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.155EPA / play+0.040
- 37.7%Success rate45.5%
- -0.120EPA / dropback+0.023
- -0.212EPA / rush+0.058
- 5.6%Explosive rate10.3%
- 33.2%Third-down rate42.9%
- 48.7%Red-zone TD rate64.3%
- 1.10Points / drive1.86
- 3.8%Turnover rate1.5%
- +0.068EPA / play allowed-0.048
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 5–2 since 1999
SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.9 points. NYJ are 1-6 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SF–NYJ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYJ | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SF | Q1 12:46 | 4 | 4 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NYJ | Q1 11:40 | 4 | 12 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SF | Q1 9:57 | 6 | 50 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NYJ | Q1 6:49 | 4 | 21 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SF | Q1 5:07 | 9 | 78 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| NYJ | Q1 0:25 | 7 | 34 | Punt | 7–0 |
| SF | Q2 11:44 | 7 | 88 | Touchdown | 14–0 |
| NYJ | Q2 7:23 | 9 | 41 | Field goal | 14–3 |
| SF | Q2 2:12 | 7 | 27 | Punt | 14–3 |
| NYJ | Q2 1:13 | 6 | 49 | End of half | 14–3 |
| SF | Q3 15:00 | 9 | 39 | Punt | 14–3 |
| NYJ | Q3 9:38 | 13 | 91 | Touchdown | 14–9 |
| SF | Q3 3:15 | 5 | 19 | Punt | 14–9 |
| NYJ | Q3 0:59 | 8 | 70 | Touchdown | 14–15 |
| SF | Q4 11:41 | 4 | 10 | Punt | 14–15 |
| NYJ | Q4 9:44 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 14–15 |
| SF | Q4 7:38 | 6 | 35 | Punt | 14–15 |
| NYJ | Q4 4:18 | 5 | 18 | Punt | 14–15 |
| SF | Q4 1:44 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 14–15 |
| NYJ | Q4 1:36 | 4 | 20 | Touchdown | 14–22 |
| SF | Q4 0:25 | 2 | 21 | Turnover | 14–22 |
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Rattay | 18/28 | 286 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevan Barlow | 21 | 79 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Tim Rattay | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Terry Jackson | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Pennington | 20/30 | 222 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Martin | 25 | 111 | 4.4 | 2 |
| LaMont Jordan | 2 | 25 | 12.5 | 1 |
| Chad Pennington | 4 | 18 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Justin McCareins | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
3.33%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
64.9%
Expected total
42.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.44
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.00