Closing spread
NYJ -9.5
Total
43
Model margin
+6.0est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jets
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.155EPA / play+0.040
- 37.7%Success rate45.5%
- -0.120EPA / dropback+0.023
- -0.212EPA / rush+0.058
- 5.6%Explosive rate10.3%
- 33.2%Third-down rate42.9%
- 48.7%Red-zone TD rate64.3%
- 1.10Points / drive1.86
- 3.8%Turnover rate1.5%
- +0.068EPA / play allowed-0.048
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 5–2 since 1999
SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.9 points. NYJ are 1-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Rattay | 18/28 | 286 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevan Barlow | 21 | 79 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Tim Rattay | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Terry Jackson | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Pennington | 20/30 | 222 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Martin | 25 | 111 | 4.4 | 2 |
| LaMont Jordan | 2 | 25 | 12.5 | 1 |
| Chad Pennington | 4 | 18 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Justin McCareins | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
3.33%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
64.9%
Expected total
42.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.44
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.00