2012 · Week 4

Final

49ers

San Francisco

QB Alex Smith

34·0

Jets

New York

QB Mark Sanchez

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 67°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

SF -3.5

Total

40.5

Model margin

+0.9est.

NYJ perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

49ers

Jets

Win probability

  • Jets
  • 49ers

How each play moved the game.

Jets wins49ers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

49ersedge mapJets
  • +0.105EPA / play-0.101
  • 47.9%Success rate41.7%
  • +0.170EPA / dropback-0.139
  • +0.029EPA / rush-0.054
  • 12.9%Explosive rate7.8%
  • +5.02CPOE-5.39
  • 35.1%Third-down rate36.9%
  • 54.7%Red-zone TD rate47.4%
  • 1.92Points / drive1.20
  • 1.4%Turnover rate3.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SF lead 5–2 since 1999

SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.9 points. NYJ are 1-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W1NYJ @ SF19–32SF
2020 · W2SF @ NYJ31–13SF
2016 · W14NYJ @ SF23–17NYJ
2008 · W14NYJ @ SF14–24SF
2004 · W6SF @ NYJ14–22NYJ
2001 · W3SF @ NYJ19–17SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSF–NYJ
SFQ1 15:0045Punt0–0
NYJQ1 13:21840Punt0–0
SFQ1 8:49857Punt0–0
NYJQ1 4:4236Punt0–0
SFQ1 3:04873Touchdown7–0
NYJQ2 13:37628Turnover7–0
SFQ2 10:39510Missed field goal7–0
NYJQ2 7:2233Punt7–0
SFQ2 5:36514Punt7–0
NYJQ2 2:4966Turnover7–0
SFQ2 1:11651Field goal10–0
NYJQ3 15:00425Turnover10–0
SFQ3 13:19419Missed field goal10–0
NYJQ3 11:1333Punt10–0
SFQ3 10:11613Punt10–0
NYJQ3 7:1332Punt10–0
SFQ3 6:15648Touchdown17–0
NYJQ3 2:49719Opp touchdown24–0
SFQ4 14:4600Opp touchdown24–0
NYJQ4 14:4635Punt24–0
SFQ4 13:21946Field goal27–0
NYJQ4 8:2340Punt27–0
SFQ4 7:3543Touchdown34–0
NYJQ4 6:0338Punt34–0
SFQ4 4:28546End of half34–0

Box score

Individual performances

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Alex Smith12/2114300
Colin Kaepernick0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Frank Gore20643.21
Kendall Hunter8567.01
Colin Kaepernick55010.01
Mario Manningham12828.00
Anthony Dixon4164.00
Alex Smith3124.00
Kyle Williams199.00
Ted Ginn177.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mario Manningham35470
Delanie Walker24310
Vernon Davis22280
Michael Crabtree27150
Frank Gore22130
Randy Moss0100

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mark Sanchez13/2910301
Tim Tebow1/1900

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Shonn Greene11343.10
Bilal Powell4112.80
Tim Tebow200.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chaz Schilens33450
Santonio Holmes48290
Jeff Cumberland45170
Jeremy Kerley23120
Dedrick Epps1190
Shonn Greene0100
Patrick Turner0500
Bilal Powell0300

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.54.3%2.8%7.2%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour 49ers.

Half-point at risk

7.23%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.6%

Expected total

41.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.76
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+1.22
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.95