Closing spread
SF -3.5
Total
40.5
Model margin
+0.9est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jets
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.105EPA / play-0.101
- 47.9%Success rate41.7%
- +0.170EPA / dropback-0.139
- +0.029EPA / rush-0.054
- 12.9%Explosive rate7.8%
- +5.02CPOE-5.39
- 35.1%Third-down rate36.9%
- 54.7%Red-zone TD rate47.4%
- 1.92Points / drive1.20
- 1.4%Turnover rate3.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 5–2 since 1999
SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.9 points. NYJ are 1-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 12/21 | 143 | 0 | 0 |
| Colin Kaepernick | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 20 | 64 | 3.2 | 1 |
| Kendall Hunter | 8 | 56 | 7.0 | 1 |
| Colin Kaepernick | 5 | 50 | 10.0 | 1 |
| Mario Manningham | 1 | 28 | 28.0 | 0 |
| Anthony Dixon | 4 | 16 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Alex Smith | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Kyle Williams | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Ted Ginn | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mario Manningham | 3 | 5 | 47 | 0 |
| Delanie Walker | 2 | 4 | 31 | 0 |
| Vernon Davis | 2 | 2 | 28 | 0 |
| Michael Crabtree | 2 | 7 | 15 | 0 |
| Frank Gore | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Randy Moss | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Sanchez | 13/29 | 103 | 0 | 1 |
| Tim Tebow | 1/1 | 9 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shonn Greene | 11 | 34 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Bilal Powell | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Tim Tebow | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chaz Schilens | 3 | 3 | 45 | 0 |
| Santonio Holmes | 4 | 8 | 29 | 0 |
| Jeff Cumberland | 4 | 5 | 17 | 0 |
| Jeremy Kerley | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Dedrick Epps | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Shonn Greene | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Patrick Turner | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
| Bilal Powell | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
7.23%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.6%
Expected total
41.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.76
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+1.22
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.95