Closing spread
NYJ -3
Total
44.5
Model margin
-0.8est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
7.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jets
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.097EPA / play-0.031
- 45.1%Success rate41.1%
- +0.174EPA / dropback+0.011
- -0.001EPA / rush-0.079
- 9.2%Explosive rate10.9%
- 44.9%Third-down rate37.4%
- 69.0%Red-zone TD rate48.1%
- 1.93Points / drive1.16
- 1.8%Turnover rate2.0%
- -0.061EPA / play allowed-0.047
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 5–2 since 1999
SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.9 points. NYJ are 1-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Garcia | 16/20 | 141 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garrison Hearst | 20 | 95 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Kevan Barlow | 9 | 83 | 9.2 | 0 |
| Terry Jackson | 2 | 23 | 11.5 | 0 |
| Jeff Garcia | 8 | 18 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Terrell Owens | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrell Owens | 4 | 5 | 38 | 1 |
| Garrison Hearst | 3 | 3 | 28 | 0 |
| Eric Johnson | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Tai Streets | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| J.J. Stokes | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Kevan Barlow | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Justin Swift | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Terry Jackson | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vinny Testaverde | 12/25 | 202 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Martin | 20 | 76 | 3.8 | 2 |
| LaMont Jordan | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wayne Chrebet | 3 | 4 | 64 | 0 |
| Laveranues Coles | 3 | 7 | 60 | 0 |
| Matt Hatchette | 1 | 2 | 29 | 0 |
| Anthony Becht | 3 | 7 | 24 | 0 |
| Curtis Martin | 1 | 1 | 20 | 0 |
| Kevin Swayne | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
7.25%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.8%
Expected total
45.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.41
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.85