2016 · Week 14

Final / OT

Jets

New York

QB Bryce Petty

23·17

49ers

San Francisco

QB Colin Kaepernick

Levi's Stadium · outdoors · grass · 54°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

SF -3

Total

42.5

Model margin

+1.9est.

SF perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jets

49ers

Win probability

  • 49ers
  • Jets

How each play moved the game.

49ers winsJets wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jetsedge map49ers
  • -0.069EPA / play-0.089
  • 40.5%Success rate39.6%
  • -0.069EPA / dropback-0.036
  • -0.070EPA / rush-0.169
  • 9.3%Explosive rate8.0%
  • -4.70CPOE-5.73
  • 36.5%Third-down rate34.6%
  • 47.6%Red-zone TD rate72.1%
  • 1.40Points / drive1.59
  • 3.2%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SF lead 5–2 since 1999

SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.9 points. SF are 6-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W1NYJ @ SF19–32SF
2020 · W2SF @ NYJ31–13SF
2012 · W4SF @ NYJ34–0SF
2008 · W14NYJ @ SF14–24SF
2004 · W6SF @ NYJ14–22NYJ
2001 · W3SF @ NYJ19–17SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYJ–SF
NYJQ1 15:0022Turnover0–6
SFQ1 14:0417Touchdown0–7
NYJQ1 13:5736Punt0–7
SFQ1 12:34481Touchdown0–14
NYJQ1 10:4532Punt0–14
SFQ1 8:26539Missed field goal0–14
NYJQ1 5:37521Punt0–14
SFQ1 1:58758Missed field goal0–14
NYJQ2 13:211044Field goal3–14
SFQ2 7:28446Field goal3–17
NYJQ2 5:4532Punt3–17
SFQ2 4:23416Punt3–17
NYJQ2 2:07641Punt3–17
SFQ2 0:52532End of half3–17
SFQ3 15:0035Punt3–17
NYJQ3 13:531269Field goal6–17
SFQ3 6:28617Punt6–17
NYJQ3 3:10734Punt6–17
SFQ3 0:21412Punt6–17
NYJQ4 13:271566Touchdown14–17
SFQ4 5:04510Punt14–17
NYJQ4 2:35838Field goal17–17
SFQ4 0:3833Punt17–17
NYJQ4 0:18311End of half17–17
SFOT638Turnover on downs17–17
NYJOT668Touchdown23–17

Box score

Individual performances

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Bryce Petty23/3525701

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Bilal Powell291455.02
Bryce Petty4194.80
Robbie Chosen2126.00
Matt Forte382.70
Brandon Wilds242.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Robbie Chosen611990
Austin Seferian-Jenkins33350
Bilal Powell55340
Brandon Marshall35330
Quincy Enunwa37290
Brandon Bostick22170
Charone Peake12100

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Colin Kaepernick15/2613310

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Carlos Hyde1719311.40
Shaun Draughn7324.61
Colin Kaepernick3237.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jeremy Kerley58500
Quinton Patton46310
Blake Bell12300
Chris Harper1580
Rod Streater1170
Carlos Hyde1171
Garrett Celek1150
Torrey Smith0100
Shaun Draughn11-50

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +34.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%2.9%

Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Jets.

Half-point at risk

7.50%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.1%

Expected total

43.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.87
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.92
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+1.87