Closing spread
SF -3
Total
42.5
Model margin
+1.9est.
SF perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- 49ers
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.069EPA / play-0.089
- 40.5%Success rate39.6%
- -0.069EPA / dropback-0.036
- -0.070EPA / rush-0.169
- 9.3%Explosive rate8.0%
- -4.70CPOE-5.73
- 36.5%Third-down rate34.6%
- 47.6%Red-zone TD rate72.1%
- 1.40Points / drive1.59
- 3.2%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 5–2 since 1999
SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.9 points. SF are 6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Petty | 23/35 | 257 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bilal Powell | 29 | 145 | 5.0 | 2 |
| Bryce Petty | 4 | 19 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Robbie Chosen | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Matt Forte | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Brandon Wilds | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robbie Chosen | 6 | 11 | 99 | 0 |
| Austin Seferian-Jenkins | 3 | 3 | 35 | 0 |
| Bilal Powell | 5 | 5 | 34 | 0 |
| Brandon Marshall | 3 | 5 | 33 | 0 |
| Quincy Enunwa | 3 | 7 | 29 | 0 |
| Brandon Bostick | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Charone Peake | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colin Kaepernick | 15/26 | 133 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Hyde | 17 | 193 | 11.4 | 0 |
| Shaun Draughn | 7 | 32 | 4.6 | 1 |
| Colin Kaepernick | 3 | 23 | 7.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Kerley | 5 | 8 | 50 | 0 |
| Quinton Patton | 4 | 6 | 31 | 0 |
| Blake Bell | 1 | 2 | 30 | 0 |
| Chris Harper | 1 | 5 | 8 | 0 |
| Rod Streater | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Carlos Hyde | 1 | 1 | 7 | 1 |
| Garrett Celek | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Torrey Smith | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Shaun Draughn | 1 | 1 | -5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
7.50%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.1%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.87
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment+0.92
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+1.87