Closing spread
SF -3.5
Total
43
Model margin
+1.9est.
SF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- 49ers
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.001EPA / play+0.063
- 43.0%Success rate46.0%
- +0.053EPA / dropback+0.142
- -0.108EPA / rush-0.059
- 8.8%Explosive rate10.5%
- -1.89CPOE+1.77
- 39.7%Third-down rate43.1%
- 57.9%Red-zone TD rate57.5%
- 1.85Points / drive2.24
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 5–2 since 1999
SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.9 points. SF are 6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 13/21 | 167 | 1 | 1 |
| Tyrod Taylor | 6/8 | 36 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breece Hall | 16 | 54 | 3.4 | 1 |
| Braelon Allen | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Tyrod Taylor | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allen Lazard | 6 | 9 | 89 | 2 |
| Garrett Wilson | 6 | 11 | 60 | 0 |
| Breece Hall | 5 | 6 | 39 | 0 |
| Braelon Allen | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Tyler Conklin | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Purdy | 19/29 | 231 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Mason | 28 | 147 | 5.3 | 1 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 8 | 23 | 2.9 | 1 |
| Brock Purdy | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Brandon Allen | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jauan Jennings | 5 | 5 | 64 | 0 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 5 | 9 | 54 | 0 |
| George Kittle | 4 | 5 | 40 | 0 |
| Brandon Aiyuk | 2 | 5 | 28 | 0 |
| Jordan Mason | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Eric Saubert | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
2.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.3%
Expected total
45.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.24
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.94