2024 · Week 1

Final

Jets

New York

QB Aaron Rodgers

19·32

49ers

San Francisco

QB Brock Purdy

Levi's Stadium · outdoors · grass · 76°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

SF -3.5

Total

43

Model margin

+1.9est.

SF perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jets

49ers

Win probability

  • 49ers
  • Jets

How each play moved the game.

49ers winsJets wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jetsedge map49ers
  • -0.001EPA / play+0.063
  • 43.0%Success rate46.0%
  • +0.053EPA / dropback+0.142
  • -0.108EPA / rush-0.059
  • 8.8%Explosive rate10.5%
  • -1.89CPOE+1.77
  • 39.7%Third-down rate43.1%
  • 57.9%Red-zone TD rate57.5%
  • 1.85Points / drive2.24
  • 1.7%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SF lead 5–2 since 1999

SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.9 points. SF are 6-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2020 · W2SF @ NYJ31–13SF
2016 · W14NYJ @ SF23–17NYJ
2012 · W4SF @ NYJ34–0SF
2008 · W14NYJ @ SF14–24SF
2004 · W6SF @ NYJ14–22NYJ
2001 · W3SF @ NYJ19–17SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYJ–SF
NYJQ1 15:0037Punt0–0
SFQ1 13:3138Punt0–0
NYJQ1 11:5412Turnover0–0
SFQ1 11:4733Field goal0–3
NYJQ1 10:581270Touchdown7–3
SFQ1 3:51837Field goal7–6
NYJQ2 14:0430Punt7–6
SFQ2 12:431287Touchdown7–13
NYJQ2 6:5435Punt7–13
SFQ2 5:181175Field goal7–16
NYJQ2 0:0400End of half7–16
SFQ3 15:001175Touchdown7–23
NYJQ3 7:42317Turnover7–23
SFQ3 6:11821Field goal7–26
NYJQ3 3:28570Touchdown13–26
SFQ3 1:391170Field goal13–29
NYJQ4 9:43626Turnover on downs13–29
SFQ4 7:22426Field goal13–32
NYJQ4 4:201270Touchdown19–32
SFQ4 0:2500End of half19–32

Box score

Individual performances

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers13/2116711
Tyrod Taylor6/83610

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Breece Hall16543.41
Braelon Allen188.00
Tyrod Taylor177.00
Aaron Rodgers1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Allen Lazard69892
Garrett Wilson611600
Breece Hall56390
Braelon Allen1190
Tyler Conklin1260

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brock Purdy19/2923100

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jordan Mason281475.31
Deebo Samuel Sr.8232.91
Brock Purdy11111.00
Brandon Allen1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jauan Jennings55640
Deebo Samuel Sr.59540
George Kittle45400
Brandon Aiyuk25280
Jordan Mason1150
Eric Saubert0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.54.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%2.9%

Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Jets.

Half-point at risk

2.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.3%

Expected total

45.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.24
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.94