Closing spread
SF -7
Total
41.5
Model margin
-2.2est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
4.7%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jets
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.010EPA / play-0.116
- 45.8%Success rate40.9%
- +0.089EPA / dropback-0.098
- -0.106EPA / rush-0.146
- 9.4%Explosive rate7.4%
- -1.74CPOE-2.07
- 39.6%Third-down rate34.4%
- 71.8%Red-zone TD rate41.2%
- 2.03Points / drive1.24
- 2.5%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 5–2 since 1999
SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.9 points. NYJ are 1-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 14/16 | 131 | 2 | 0 |
| Nick Mullens | 8/11 | 71 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raheem Mostert | 8 | 92 | 11.5 | 1 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 3 | 77 | 25.7 | 1 |
| Tevin Coleman | 14 | 12 | 0.9 | 0 |
| Jeff Wilson | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Nick Mullens | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kendrick Bourne | 4 | 5 | 67 | 0 |
| Jordan Reed | 7 | 8 | 50 | 2 |
| Tevin Coleman | 2 | 2 | 28 | 0 |
| Brandon Aiyuk | 2 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Raheem Mostert | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Trent Taylor | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Ross Dwelley | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold | 21/32 | 179 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 21 | 63 | 3.0 | 0 |
| La'Mical Perine | 3 | 17 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Josh Malone | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Sam Darnold | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Kalen Ballage | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Josh Adams | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Hogan | 6 | 8 | 75 | 0 |
| Braxton Berrios | 6 | 8 | 59 | 1 |
| Josh Malone | 4 | 6 | 16 | 0 |
| Breshad Perriman | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Kalen Ballage | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Chris Herndon | 1 | 4 | 5 | 0 |
| Frank Gore | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
4.71%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
43.1%
Expected total
40.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.70
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-2.23
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-2.23