2020 · Week 2

Final

49ers

San Francisco

QB Jimmy Garoppolo

31·13

Jets

New York

QB Sam Darnold

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 61°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

SF -7

Total

41.5

Model margin

-2.2est.

NYJ perspective

Push chance

4.7%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

49ers

Jets

Win probability

  • Jets
  • 49ers

How each play moved the game.

Jets wins49ers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

49ersedge mapJets
  • +0.010EPA / play-0.116
  • 45.8%Success rate40.9%
  • +0.089EPA / dropback-0.098
  • -0.106EPA / rush-0.146
  • 9.4%Explosive rate7.4%
  • -1.74CPOE-2.07
  • 39.6%Third-down rate34.4%
  • 71.8%Red-zone TD rate41.2%
  • 2.03Points / drive1.24
  • 2.5%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SF lead 5–2 since 1999

SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.9 points. NYJ are 1-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W1NYJ @ SF19–32SF
2016 · W14NYJ @ SF23–17NYJ
2012 · W4SF @ NYJ34–0SF
2008 · W14NYJ @ SF14–24SF
2004 · W6SF @ NYJ14–22NYJ
2001 · W3SF @ NYJ19–17SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSF–NYJ
SFQ1 15:00180Touchdown7–0
NYJQ1 14:43621Punt7–0
SFQ1 12:243-6Punt7–0
NYJQ1 10:221238Field goal7–3
SFQ1 3:391477Touchdown14–3
NYJQ2 9:551155Turnover on downs14–3
SFQ2 3:411465Touchdown21–3
NYJQ2 0:1100End of half21–3
NYJQ3 15:0038Punt21–3
SFQ3 13:04755Field goal24–3
NYJQ3 8:49419Punt24–3
SFQ3 7:38514Turnover24–3
NYJQ3 4:39415Field goal24–6
SFQ3 2:4939Punt24–6
NYJQ3 0:26523Punt24–6
SFQ4 13:35662Touchdown31–6
NYJQ4 10:2362Turnover on downs31–6
SFQ4 8:5032Punt31–6
NYJQ4 7:07516Punt31–6
SFQ4 4:5233Punt31–6
NYJQ4 3:07881Touchdown31–13
SFQ4 1:2300End of half31–13

Box score

Individual performances

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jimmy Garoppolo14/1613120
Nick Mullens8/117101

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Raheem Mostert89211.51
Jerick McKinnon37725.71
Tevin Coleman14120.90
Jeff Wilson231.50
Nick Mullens2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kendrick Bourne45670
Jordan Reed78502
Tevin Coleman22280
Brandon Aiyuk23210
Raheem Mostert22150
Trent Taylor23100
Ross Dwelley1150
Jerick McKinnon0100

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Sam Darnold21/3217910

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Frank Gore21633.00
La'Mical Perine3175.70
Josh Malone11212.00
Sam Darnold273.50
Kalen Ballage155.00
Josh Adams100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chris Hogan68750
Braxton Berrios68591
Josh Malone46160
Breshad Perriman22120
Kalen Ballage22120
Chris Herndon1450
Frank Gore0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -73.0%4.7%3.1%7.5%7.0%2.7%4.0%

Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour 49ers.

Half-point at risk

4.71%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

43.1%

Expected total

40.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.70
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-2.23
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-2.23