2008 · Week 14
Final
M&T Bank Stadium · outdoors · sportturf · 29°F · wind 20mph
Closing spread
BAL -6
Total
34.5
Model margin
+5.1est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
3.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Ravens
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.032EPA / play-0.018
- 42.3%Success rate40.6%
- +0.004EPA / dropback-0.007
- -0.080EPA / rush-0.027
- 7.5%Explosive rate7.9%
- -1.49CPOE-0.33
- 36.0%Third-down rate41.3%
- 55.0%Red-zone TD rate50.4%
- 1.37Points / drive1.61
- 1.6%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 4–3 since 1999
BAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 37.1 points. BAL are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | WAS–BAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WAS | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 12 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| BAL | Q1 14:05 | 5 | 55 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| WAS | Q1 11:59 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–7 |
| BAL | Q1 10:59 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–13 |
| WAS | Q1 9:43 | 1 | 11 | Opp touchdown | 0–14 |
| WAS | Q1 9:30 | 9 | 25 | Punt | 0–14 |
| BAL | Q1 3:08 | 3 | 12 | Punt | 0–14 |
| WAS | Q1 1:40 | 5 | 11 | Punt | 0–14 |
| BAL | Q2 14:47 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 0–14 |
| WAS | Q2 13:09 | 5 | 22 | Missed field goal | 0–14 |
| BAL | Q2 11:35 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 0–14 |
| WAS | Q2 10:28 | 5 | 19 | Punt | 0–14 |
| BAL | Q2 8:08 | 4 | 35 | Punt | 0–14 |
| WAS | Q2 6:12 | 8 | 61 | Punt | 0–14 |
| BAL | Q2 1:01 | 1 | 2 | End of half | 0–14 |
| BAL | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–14 |
| WAS | Q3 12:51 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–14 |
| BAL | Q3 10:44 | 13 | 65 | Field goal | 0–17 |
| WAS | Q3 4:11 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–17 |
| BAL | Q3 2:27 | 3 | -3 | Turnover | 0–17 |
| WAS | Q3 0:51 | 5 | 1 | Field goal | 3–17 |
| BAL | Q4 13:40 | 2 | 10 | Turnover | 3–17 |
| WAS | Q4 13:09 | 5 | 30 | Touchdown | 10–17 |
| BAL | Q4 11:27 | 12 | 83 | Touchdown | 10–24 |
| WAS | Q4 3:35 | 5 | 17 | Turnover | 10–24 |
| BAL | Q4 1:53 | 4 | 2 | Turnover on downs | 10–24 |
| WAS | Q4 0:16 | 3 | 27 | End of half | 10–24 |
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Campbell | 21/37 | 218 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clinton Portis | 11 | 32 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Mike Sellers | 2 | 16 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Jason Campbell | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Ladell Betts | 6 | 3 | 0.5 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 10/21 | 134 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willis McGahee | 11 | 32 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Ray Rice | 3 | 31 | 10.3 | 0 |
| Mark Clayton | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Joe Flacco | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
3.19%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.5%
Expected total
40.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.59
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.07