2008 · Week 14

Final

Commanders

Washington

QB Jason Campbell

10·24

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Joe Flacco

M&T Bank Stadium · outdoors · sportturf · 29°F · wind 20mph

Closing spread

BAL -6

Total

34.5

Model margin

+5.1est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

3.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • Commanders

How each play moved the game.

Ravens winsCommanders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Commandersedge mapRavens
  • -0.032EPA / play-0.018
  • 42.3%Success rate40.6%
  • +0.004EPA / dropback-0.007
  • -0.080EPA / rush-0.027
  • 7.5%Explosive rate7.9%
  • -1.49CPOE-0.33
  • 36.0%Third-down rate41.3%
  • 55.0%Red-zone TD rate50.4%
  • 1.37Points / drive1.61
  • 1.6%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 4–3 since 1999

BAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 37.1 points. BAL are 3-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W6WAS @ BAL23–30BAL
2020 · W4BAL @ WAS31–17BAL
2016 · W5WAS @ BAL16–10WAS
2012 · W14BAL @ WAS28–31WAS
2004 · W5BAL @ WAS17–10BAL
2000 · W7BAL @ WAS3–10WAS

Box score

Individual performances

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jason Campbell21/3721812

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Clinton Portis11322.90
Mike Sellers2168.00
Jason Campbell2115.50
Ladell Betts630.50

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco10/2113411

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Willis McGahee11322.90
Ray Rice33110.30
Mark Clayton11212.00
Joe Flacco4112.80

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +63.5%6.4%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.3%3.0%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Commanders.

Half-point at risk

3.19%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

62.5%

Expected total

40.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.59
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.07