2020 · Week 4
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 65°F · wind 5mph
Closing spread
BAL -14.5
Total
45
Model margin
-0.5est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Commanders
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.109EPA / play-0.051
- 45.2%Success rate42.1%
- +0.125EPA / dropback-0.063
- +0.093EPA / rush-0.030
- 10.3%Explosive rate7.7%
- -0.32CPOE-1.32
- 49.8%Third-down rate40.2%
- 71.9%Red-zone TD rate63.6%
- 2.64Points / drive1.76
- 1.8%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 4–3 since 1999
BAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 37.1 points. WAS are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 14/21 | 193 | 2 | 1 |
| Robert Griffin III | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 7 | 53 | 7.6 | 1 |
| Gus Edwards | 9 | 38 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Mark Ingram | 8 | 34 | 4.3 | 1 |
| J.K. Dobbins | 5 | 16 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Robert Griffin III | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marquise Brown | 4 | 8 | 86 | 0 |
| Mark Andrews | 3 | 3 | 57 | 2 |
| Miles Boykin | 2 | 4 | 28 | 0 |
| Willie Snead | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Nick Boyle | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Devin Duvernay | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Mark Ingram | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| J.K. Dobbins | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dwayne Haskins | 32/45 | 314 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Gibson | 13 | 46 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Isaiah Wright | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| J.D. McKissic | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Peyton Barber | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Dwayne Haskins | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry McLaurin | 10 | 14 | 118 | 0 |
| Antonio Gibson | 4 | 5 | 82 | 0 |
| J.D. McKissic | 7 | 8 | 40 | 0 |
| Dontrelle Inman | 4 | 5 | 29 | 0 |
| Isaiah Wright | 4 | 5 | 20 | 0 |
| Cam Sims | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Logan Thomas | 1 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
| Peyton Barber | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
2.34%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.6%
Expected total
41.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.89
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-0.43
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin-0.54