2024 · Week 6

Final

Commanders

Washington

QB Jayden Daniels

23·30

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Lamar Jackson

M&T Bank Stadium · outdoors · grass · 75°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

BAL -6.5

Total

51.5

Model margin

+4.7est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Commanders

Ravens

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • Commanders

How each play moved the game.

Ravens winsCommanders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Commandersedge mapRavens
  • +0.138EPA / play+0.199
  • 48.1%Success rate49.4%
  • +0.211EPA / dropback+0.328
  • +0.027EPA / rush+0.053
  • 8.5%Explosive rate12.0%
  • +4.57CPOE+4.67
  • 45.9%Third-down rate47.9%
  • 67.2%Red-zone TD rate76.9%
  • 2.78Points / drive2.80
  • 1.2%Turnover rate1.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 4–3 since 1999

BAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 37.1 points. BAL are 3-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2020 · W4BAL @ WAS31–17BAL
2016 · W5WAS @ BAL16–10WAS
2012 · W14BAL @ WAS28–31WAS
2008 · W14WAS @ BAL10–24BAL
2004 · W5BAL @ WAS17–10BAL
2000 · W7BAL @ WAS3–10WAS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultWAS–BAL
BALQ1 15:00446Turnover0–0
WASQ1 12:47625Field goal3–0
BALQ1 9:11947Field goal3–3
WASQ1 3:4530Punt3–3
BALQ1 2:203-10Punt3–3
WASQ1 0:0269Punt3–3
BALQ2 12:531082Touchdown3–10
WASQ2 7:55875Touchdown10–10
BALQ2 4:161183Touchdown10–17
WASQ2 0:53536Missed field goal10–17
WASQ3 15:00533Field goal13–17
BALQ3 12:45757Field goal13–20
WASQ3 8:19425Punt13–20
BALQ3 6:50984Touchdown13–27
WASQ3 2:081375Touchdown20–27
BALQ4 12:12857Field goal20–30
WASQ4 6:18927Field goal23–30
BALQ4 2:48540End of half23–30

Box score

Individual performances

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jayden Daniels24/3526920

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jayden Daniels6223.70
Austin Ekeler9212.30
Jeremy McNichols294.50
Terry McLaurin100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Zach Ertz45680
Noah Brown48580
Terry McLaurin67532
Austin Ekeler45470
Olamide Zaccheaus46270
Dyami Brown11110
Luke McCaffrey1150

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Lamar Jackson20/2632311

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Derrick Henry241325.52
Lamar Jackson11403.60
Justice Hill122.00
Zay Flowers122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Zay Flowers991320
Rashod Bateman44710
Mark Andrews34661
Isaiah Likely24270
Nelson Agholor13250
Justice Hill1120

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +6.53.6%6.5%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%3.0%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Commanders.

Half-point at risk

4.92%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.5%

Expected total

44.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.95
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.65