2024 · Week 6
Final
M&T Bank Stadium · outdoors · grass · 75°F · wind 8mph
Closing spread
BAL -6.5
Total
51.5
Model margin
+4.7est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Ravens
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.138EPA / play+0.199
- 48.1%Success rate49.4%
- +0.211EPA / dropback+0.328
- +0.027EPA / rush+0.053
- 8.5%Explosive rate12.0%
- +4.57CPOE+4.67
- 45.9%Third-down rate47.9%
- 67.2%Red-zone TD rate76.9%
- 2.78Points / drive2.80
- 1.2%Turnover rate1.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 4–3 since 1999
BAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 37.1 points. BAL are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden Daniels | 24/35 | 269 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden Daniels | 6 | 22 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Austin Ekeler | 9 | 21 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Jeremy McNichols | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Terry McLaurin | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Ertz | 4 | 5 | 68 | 0 |
| Noah Brown | 4 | 8 | 58 | 0 |
| Terry McLaurin | 6 | 7 | 53 | 2 |
| Austin Ekeler | 4 | 5 | 47 | 0 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | 4 | 6 | 27 | 0 |
| Dyami Brown | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Luke McCaffrey | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 20/26 | 323 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | 24 | 132 | 5.5 | 2 |
| Lamar Jackson | 11 | 40 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Justice Hill | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Zay Flowers | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zay Flowers | 9 | 9 | 132 | 0 |
| Rashod Bateman | 4 | 4 | 71 | 0 |
| Mark Andrews | 3 | 4 | 66 | 1 |
| Isaiah Likely | 2 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| Nelson Agholor | 1 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| Justice Hill | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
4.92%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.5%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.95
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.65