2016 · Week 5

Final

Commanders

Washington

QB Kirk Cousins

16·10

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Joe Flacco

M&T Bank Stadium · outdoors · grass · 62°F · wind 16mph

Closing spread

BAL -4

Total

44.5

Model margin

-0.4est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

2.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Commanders

Ravens

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • Commanders

How each play moved the game.

Ravens winsCommanders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Commandersedge mapRavens
  • +0.118EPA / play-0.060
  • 48.2%Success rate40.7%
  • +0.202EPA / dropback-0.041
  • -0.033EPA / rush-0.100
  • 10.6%Explosive rate7.1%
  • +4.99CPOE-0.41
  • 44.9%Third-down rate38.2%
  • 51.2%Red-zone TD rate53.9%
  • 2.32Points / drive1.63
  • 1.9%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 4–3 since 1999

BAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 37.1 points. BAL are 3-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W6WAS @ BAL23–30BAL
2020 · W4BAL @ WAS31–17BAL
2012 · W14BAL @ WAS28–31WAS
2008 · W14WAS @ BAL10–24BAL
2004 · W5BAL @ WAS17–10BAL
2000 · W7BAL @ WAS3–10WAS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultWAS–BAL
BALQ1 15:00975Touchdown0–7
WASQ1 10:13421Punt0–7
BALQ1 8:16521Opp touchdown6–7
BALQ1 4:521250Field goal6–10
WASQ2 14:5683Punt6–10
BALQ2 10:54634Punt6–10
WASQ2 7:4839Turnover6–10
BALQ2 6:314-2Turnover on downs6–10
WASQ2 4:281043Turnover on downs6–10
BALQ2 1:2139Punt6–10
WASQ2 0:44533Missed field goal6–10
BALQ2 0:011-6End of half6–10
WASQ3 15:00614Punt6–10
BALQ3 12:374-1Punt6–10
WASQ3 10:01350Touchdown13–10
BALQ3 8:2836Punt13–10
WASQ3 6:5822Turnover13–10
WASQ3 6:09112Field goal13–10
WASQ3 5:36116Field goal13–10
WASQ3 4:54844Field goal16–10
BALQ3 0:14431Punt16–10
WASQ4 13:35536Punt16–10
BALQ4 10:4536Punt16–10
WASQ4 9:1839Punt16–10
BALQ4 7:34421Punt16–10
WASQ4 5:34519Punt16–10
BALQ4 2:331462Turnover on downs16–10
WASQ4 0:1400End of half16–10

Box score

Individual performances

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kirk Cousins29/4126011

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Matt Jones14312.20
Rob Kelley3186.00
Chris Thompson2126.00
Kirk Cousins1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Pierre Garcon57561
Jordan Reed811530
DeSean Jackson37350
Jamison Crowder33350
Chris Thompson44330
Matt Jones22250
Vernon Davis34150
Rashad Ross1180

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco30/4621010
Justin Tucker0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Terrance West11958.60
Javorius Allen4184.50
Joe Flacco166.00
Kenneth Dixon3-1-0.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Wallace711630
Dennis Pitta78590
Steve Smith33290
Crockett Gillmore47281
Breshad Perriman25110
Kenneth Dixon1160
Kamar Aiken0300
Javorius Allen1100
Terrance West23-60

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +42.7%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Commanders.

Half-point at risk

2.43%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

48.1%

Expected total

45.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.10
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.36