2016 · Week 5
Final
M&T Bank Stadium · outdoors · grass · 62°F · wind 16mph
Closing spread
BAL -4
Total
44.5
Model margin
-0.4est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
2.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Ravens
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.118EPA / play-0.060
- 48.2%Success rate40.7%
- +0.202EPA / dropback-0.041
- -0.033EPA / rush-0.100
- 10.6%Explosive rate7.1%
- +4.99CPOE-0.41
- 44.9%Third-down rate38.2%
- 51.2%Red-zone TD rate53.9%
- 2.32Points / drive1.63
- 1.9%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 4–3 since 1999
BAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 37.1 points. BAL are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 29/41 | 260 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Jones | 14 | 31 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Rob Kelley | 3 | 18 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Chris Thompson | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Kirk Cousins | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pierre Garcon | 5 | 7 | 56 | 1 |
| Jordan Reed | 8 | 11 | 53 | 0 |
| DeSean Jackson | 3 | 7 | 35 | 0 |
| Jamison Crowder | 3 | 3 | 35 | 0 |
| Chris Thompson | 4 | 4 | 33 | 0 |
| Matt Jones | 2 | 2 | 25 | 0 |
| Vernon Davis | 3 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| Rashad Ross | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 30/46 | 210 | 1 | 0 |
| Justin Tucker | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrance West | 11 | 95 | 8.6 | 0 |
| Javorius Allen | 4 | 18 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Joe Flacco | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Kenneth Dixon | 3 | -1 | -0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Wallace | 7 | 11 | 63 | 0 |
| Dennis Pitta | 7 | 8 | 59 | 0 |
| Steve Smith | 3 | 3 | 29 | 0 |
| Crockett Gillmore | 4 | 7 | 28 | 1 |
| Breshad Perriman | 2 | 5 | 11 | 0 |
| Kenneth Dixon | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Kamar Aiken | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Javorius Allen | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Terrance West | 2 | 3 | -6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
2.43%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.1%
Expected total
45.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.10
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.36