2000 · Week 7
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 75°F · wind 0mph
Closing spread
WAS -3.5
Total
34.5
Model margin
+0.9est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Commanders
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.056EPA / play-0.027
- 40.2%Success rate41.1%
- -0.061EPA / dropback+0.058
- -0.052EPA / rush-0.148
- 8.4%Explosive rate8.1%
- 40.7%Third-down rate39.0%
- 36.0%Red-zone TD rate57.1%
- 1.45Points / drive1.30
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.9%
- -0.217EPA / play allowed-0.093
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 4–3 since 1999
BAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 37.1 points. WAS are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Banks | 16/27 | 135 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Lewis | 16 | 34 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Priest Holmes | 4 | 25 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Tony Banks | 2 | 18 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Jermaine Lewis | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Obafemi Ayanbadejo | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Travis Taylor | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shannon Sharpe | 4 | 6 | 50 | 0 |
| Qadry Ismail | 2 | 2 | 38 | 0 |
| Jermaine Lewis | 3 | 6 | 24 | 0 |
| Travis Taylor | 2 | 7 | 10 | 0 |
| Ben Coates | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Jamal Lewis | 3 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| Obafemi Ayanbadejo | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Johnson | 18/27 | 158 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Davis | 21 | 91 | 4.3 | 1 |
| Skip Hicks | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
| James Thrash | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Brad Johnson | 4 | -4 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Thrash | 6 | 6 | 62 | 0 |
| Stephen Alexander | 4 | 4 | 35 | 0 |
| Stephen Davis | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Skip Hicks | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Albert Connell | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 |
| Andre Reed | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Mike Sellers | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
2.49%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.6%
Expected total
40.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.86
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+0.23
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.93