2004 · Week 5
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 61°F · wind 16mph
Closing spread
PK
Total
34
Model margin
-1.1est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
1.9%est.
Win probability
- Commanders
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.113EPA / play-0.121
- 38.4%Success rate38.9%
- -0.127EPA / dropback-0.102
- -0.096EPA / rush-0.145
- 7.6%Explosive rate6.6%
- 35.0%Third-down rate31.9%
- 51.3%Red-zone TD rate56.8%
- 1.22Points / drive1.03
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.5%
- -0.136EPA / play allowed-0.104
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 4–3 since 1999
BAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 37.1 points. WAS are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Boller | 9/18 | 81 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Lewis | 28 | 116 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Chester Taylor | 7 | 43 | 6.1 | 0 |
| Alan Ricard | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Kyle Boller | 7 | -6 | -0.9 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Brunell | 13/29 | 83 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clinton Portis | 25 | 53 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Ladell Betts | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
1.86%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.1%
Expected total
42.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.05
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-3.70
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin-1.10