2012 · Week 14
Final / OT
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 51°F · wind 7mph
Closing spread
WAS -1
Total
47.5
Model margin
+4.5est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Commanders
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.025EPA / play+0.137
- 41.5%Success rate46.7%
- +0.070EPA / dropback+0.233
- -0.043EPA / rush+0.030
- 10.0%Explosive rate12.8%
- -0.27CPOE+4.84
- 37.1%Third-down rate35.5%
- 60.9%Red-zone TD rate67.7%
- 1.80Points / drive2.11
- 1.4%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 4–3 since 1999
BAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 37.1 points. WAS are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 16/21 | 182 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ray Rice | 20 | 121 | 6.0 | 1 |
| Bernard Pierce | 8 | 53 | 6.6 | 0 |
| Joe Flacco | 5 | 9 | 1.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anquan Boldin | 3 | 3 | 78 | 2 |
| Dennis Pitta | 5 | 6 | 46 | 1 |
| Torrey Smith | 1 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Ray Rice | 3 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| Bernard Pierce | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Jacoby Jones | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Griffin III | 15/26 | 242 | 1 | 0 |
| Kirk Cousins | 2/2 | 26 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alfred Morris | 23 | 129 | 5.6 | 1 |
| Robert Griffin III | 7 | 34 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Evan Royster | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Leonard Hankerson | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Pierre Garcon | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pierre Garcon | 5 | 9 | 83 | 1 |
| Leonard Hankerson | 4 | 5 | 67 | 0 |
| Santana Moss | 3 | 4 | 52 | 0 |
| Josh Morgan | 3 | 4 | 30 | 1 |
| Logan Paulsen | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Niles Paul | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Evan Royster | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Alfred Morris | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
2.10%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.2%
Expected total
46.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.14
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+4.54