2012 · Week 14

Final / OT

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Joe Flacco

28·31

Commanders

Washington

QB Robert Griffin

FedExField · outdoors · grass · 51°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

WAS -1

Total

47.5

Model margin

+4.5est.

WAS perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Ravens

Commanders

Win probability

  • Commanders
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Commanders winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapCommanders
  • +0.025EPA / play+0.137
  • 41.5%Success rate46.7%
  • +0.070EPA / dropback+0.233
  • -0.043EPA / rush+0.030
  • 10.0%Explosive rate12.8%
  • -0.27CPOE+4.84
  • 37.1%Third-down rate35.5%
  • 60.9%Red-zone TD rate67.7%
  • 1.80Points / drive2.11
  • 1.4%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 4–3 since 1999

BAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 37.1 points. WAS are 4-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W6WAS @ BAL23–30BAL
2020 · W4BAL @ WAS31–17BAL
2016 · W5WAS @ BAL16–10WAS
2008 · W14WAS @ BAL10–24BAL
2004 · W5BAL @ WAS17–10BAL
2000 · W7BAL @ WAS3–10WAS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–WAS
WASQ1 15:001090Touchdown0–7
BALQ1 9:38581Touchdown7–7
WASQ1 7:05993Touchdown7–14
BALQ1 2:55312Punt7–14
WASQ1 0:5833Punt7–14
BALQ2 14:45977Touchdown14–14
WASQ2 10:1626Turnover14–14
BALQ2 9:30314Touchdown21–14
WASQ2 8:39757Punt21–14
BALQ2 3:44416Punt21–14
WASQ2 1:46513Punt21–14
BALQ2 0:44418End of half21–14
BALQ3 15:00517Turnover21–14
WASQ3 12:52516Field goal21–17
BALQ3 10:27954Turnover21–17
WASQ3 5:35754Field goal21–20
BALQ3 1:213-5Punt21–20
WASQ4 14:353-7Punt21–20
BALQ4 12:1937Punt21–20
WASQ4 10:2137Punt21–20
BALQ4 8:47862Touchdown28–20
WASQ4 4:471488Touchdown28–28
BALQ4 0:2900End of half28–28
BALOT37Punt28–28
WASOT33Field goal28–31

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco16/2118231

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ray Rice201216.01
Bernard Pierce8536.60
Joe Flacco591.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Anquan Boldin33782
Dennis Pitta56461
Torrey Smith13210
Ray Rice34150
Bernard Pierce22110
Jacoby Jones0100

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Robert Griffin III15/2624210
Kirk Cousins2/22610

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alfred Morris231295.61
Robert Griffin III7344.90
Evan Royster3113.70
Leonard Hankerson133.00
Pierre Garcon122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Pierre Garcon59831
Leonard Hankerson45670
Santana Moss34520
Josh Morgan34301
Logan Paulsen1180
Niles Paul0100
Evan Royster0100
Alfred Morris0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +13.6%6.5%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

2.10%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.2%

Expected total

46.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.14
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+4.54