Closing spread
PHI -15.5
Total
40
Model margin
+11.1est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Eagles
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.155EPA / play+0.004
- 36.2%Success rate43.8%
- -0.205EPA / dropback+0.039
- -0.086EPA / rush-0.055
- 6.7%Explosive rate8.3%
- -11.69CPOE-1.08
- 33.5%Third-down rate41.3%
- 29.2%Red-zone TD rate50.9%
- 1.05Points / drive1.73
- 2.6%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 6–1 since 1999
Meetings average 44.4 points. PHI are 2-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ken Dorsey | 11/28 | 156 | 0 | 2 |
| Josh Cribbs | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Lewis | 14 | 32 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Josh Cribbs | 5 | 25 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Ken Dorsey | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 26/35 | 290 | 2 | 1 |
| Kevin Kolb | 0/2 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| DeSean Jackson | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Correll Buckhalter | 6 | 55 | 9.2 | 0 |
| Brian Westbrook | 16 | 53 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Kyle Eckel | 9 | 28 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Kevin Kolb | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
1.93%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
76.9%
Expected total
40.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+5.77
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+2.88
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+11.14