2016 · Week 1

Final

Browns

Cleveland

QB Robert Griffin

10·29

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Carson Wentz

Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass · 85°F · wind 14mph

Closing spread

PHI -3.5

Total

41

Model margin

+6.8est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Browns

Eagles

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • Browns

How each play moved the game.

Eagles winsBrowns wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Brownsedge mapEagles
  • -0.050EPA / play-0.017
  • 39.2%Success rate43.8%
  • -0.011EPA / dropback+0.046
  • -0.131EPA / rush-0.121
  • 9.2%Explosive rate8.2%
  • -1.42CPOE-0.81
  • 36.2%Third-down rate38.3%
  • 57.8%Red-zone TD rate59.4%
  • 1.37Points / drive1.86
  • 2.3%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 6–1 since 1999

Meetings average 44.4 points. PHI are 2-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W6CLE @ PHI16–20PHI
2020 · W11PHI @ CLE17–22CLE
2012 · W1PHI @ CLE17–16PHI
2008 · W15CLE @ PHI10–30PHI
2004 · W7PHI @ CLE34–31PHI
2000 · W15PHI @ CLE35–24PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCLE–PHI
PHIQ1 15:00970Touchdown0–7
CLEQ1 9:5035Punt0–7
PHIQ1 8:3167Punt0–7
CLEQ1 6:1533Punt0–7
PHIQ1 4:16514Missed field goal0–7
CLEQ1 0:474-1Turnover on downs0–7
PHIQ2 14:44431Field goal0–10
CLEQ2 12:30874Touchdown7–10
PHIQ2 9:1135Punt7–10
CLEQ2 7:35752Turnover7–10
PHIQ2 3:431060Field goal7–13
CLEQ2 0:27433End of half7–13
CLEQ3 15:00458Field goal10–13
PHIQ3 13:57733Punt10–15
CLEQ3 10:5410Safety10–15
PHIQ3 10:49973Touchdown10–22
CLEQ3 6:17513Punt10–22
PHIQ3 3:24642Punt10–22
CLEQ4 14:5133Punt10–22
PHIQ4 13:49412Punt10–22
CLEQ4 11:3331Punt10–22
PHIQ4 9:57841Punt10–22
CLEQ4 4:2647Turnover on downs10–22
PHIQ4 3:36615Touchdown10–29
CLEQ4 1:12340End of half10–29

Box score

Individual performances

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Robert Griffin III12/2619001

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Isaiah Crowell12625.21
Robert Griffin III5377.40
Duke Johnson3227.30
Andrew Hawkins1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Corey Coleman25690
Terrelle Pryor37680
Duke Johnson35280
Isaiah Crowell22160
Malcolm Johnson2290
Gary Barnidge0200
Andrew Hawkins0300

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Wentz22/3727820

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ryan Mathews22773.51
Kenjon Barner44210.50
Darren Sproles5122.40
Wendell Smallwood111.00
Carson Wentz210.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jordan Matthews7141141
Zach Ertz67580
Nelson Agholor45571
Darren Sproles25240
Dorial Green-Beckham22140
Brent Celek11110
Josh Huff0300

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.53.1%6.0%7.3%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.2%2.6%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Browns.

Half-point at risk

2.51%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

66.8%

Expected total

44.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.90
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment+3.10
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+6.75