Closing spread
PHI -3.5
Total
41
Model margin
+6.8est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Eagles
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.050EPA / play-0.017
- 39.2%Success rate43.8%
- -0.011EPA / dropback+0.046
- -0.131EPA / rush-0.121
- 9.2%Explosive rate8.2%
- -1.42CPOE-0.81
- 36.2%Third-down rate38.3%
- 57.8%Red-zone TD rate59.4%
- 1.37Points / drive1.86
- 2.3%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 6–1 since 1999
Meetings average 44.4 points. PHI are 2-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Griffin III | 12/26 | 190 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaiah Crowell | 12 | 62 | 5.2 | 1 |
| Robert Griffin III | 5 | 37 | 7.4 | 0 |
| Duke Johnson | 3 | 22 | 7.3 | 0 |
| Andrew Hawkins | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Coleman | 2 | 5 | 69 | 0 |
| Terrelle Pryor | 3 | 7 | 68 | 0 |
| Duke Johnson | 3 | 5 | 28 | 0 |
| Isaiah Crowell | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Malcolm Johnson | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Gary Barnidge | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Andrew Hawkins | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Wentz | 22/37 | 278 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Mathews | 22 | 77 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Kenjon Barner | 4 | 42 | 10.5 | 0 |
| Darren Sproles | 5 | 12 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Wendell Smallwood | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Carson Wentz | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Matthews | 7 | 14 | 114 | 1 |
| Zach Ertz | 6 | 7 | 58 | 0 |
| Nelson Agholor | 4 | 5 | 57 | 1 |
| Darren Sproles | 2 | 5 | 24 | 0 |
| Dorial Green-Beckham | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Brent Celek | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Josh Huff | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
2.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
66.8%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.90
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment+3.10
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.75