Closing spread
PHI -7
Total
41.5
Model margin
-0.8est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
4.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Browns
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.072EPA / play-0.147
- 44.4%Success rate38.6%
- +0.143EPA / dropback-0.067
- -0.060EPA / rush-0.251
- 10.1%Explosive rate7.6%
- 37.2%Third-down rate29.2%
- 68.0%Red-zone TD rate50.7%
- 1.97Points / drive1.18
- 2.2%Turnover rate3.8%
- -0.027EPA / play allowed-0.002
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 6–1 since 1999
Meetings average 44.4 points. CLE are 5-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 28/43 | 376 | 4 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dorsey Levens | 7 | 48 | 6.9 | 0 |
| Brian Westbrook | 13 | 43 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Donovan McNabb | 2 | 28 | 14.0 | 0 |
| Greg Lewis | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Garcia | 21/32 | 236 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lee Suggs | 15 | 78 | 5.2 | 1 |
| William Green | 14 | 64 | 4.6 | 1 |
| Jeff Garcia | 4 | 21 | 5.3 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
4.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.0%
Expected total
42.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.35
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.78