Closing spread
PHI -7
Total
41.5
Model margin
-0.8est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
4.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Browns
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.072EPA / play-0.147
- 44.4%Success rate38.6%
- +0.143EPA / dropback-0.067
- -0.060EPA / rush-0.251
- 10.1%Explosive rate7.6%
- 37.2%Third-down rate29.2%
- 68.0%Red-zone TD rate50.7%
- 1.97Points / drive1.18
- 2.2%Turnover rate3.8%
- -0.027EPA / play allowed-0.002
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 6–1 since 1999
Meetings average 44.4 points. CLE are 5-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | PHI–CLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | Q1 15:00 | 2 | 75 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| CLE | Q1 14:17 | 9 | 66 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| PHI | Q1 9:26 | 4 | 72 | Touchdown | 14–7 |
| CLE | Q1 7:33 | 5 | 25 | Turnover | 14–7 |
| PHI | Q1 4:54 | 7 | 38 | Punt | 14–7 |
| CLE | Q1 0:12 | 9 | 64 | Field goal | 14–10 |
| PHI | Q2 10:39 | 6 | 66 | Touchdown | 21–10 |
| CLE | Q2 8:31 | 0 | 0 | Turnover | 21–10 |
| PHI | Q2 8:21 | 5 | 28 | Turnover | 21–10 |
| CLE | Q2 5:44 | 6 | 66 | Touchdown | 21–17 |
| PHI | Q2 3:11 | 4 | 9 | Turnover on downs | 21–17 |
| CLE | Q2 1:52 | 6 | 11 | Punt | 21–17 |
| PHI | Q2 0:47 | 2 | 7 | End of half | 21–17 |
| CLE | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 21–17 |
| PHI | Q3 13:10 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 21–17 |
| CLE | Q3 11:34 | 8 | 56 | Touchdown | 21–24 |
| PHI | Q3 7:31 | 10 | 45 | Punt | 21–24 |
| CLE | Q3 3:30 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 21–24 |
| PHI | Q3 2:11 | 6 | 46 | Touchdown | 28–24 |
| CLE | Q4 14:13 | 0 | 0 | Field goal | 28–24 |
| PHI | Q4 14:06 | 5 | 1 | Field goal | 31–24 |
| CLE | Q4 10:47 | 10 | 43 | Punt | 31–24 |
| PHI | Q4 6:10 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 31–24 |
| CLE | Q4 5:03 | 12 | 39 | Touchdown | 31–31 |
| PHI | Q4 0:30 | 3 | 12 | End of half | 31–31 |
| PHI | OT | 5 | 23 | Punt | 31–31 |
| CLE | OT | 5 | 23 | Punt | 31–31 |
| PHI | OT | 7 | 56 | Field goal | 34–31 |
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 28/43 | 376 | 4 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dorsey Levens | 7 | 48 | 6.9 | 0 |
| Brian Westbrook | 13 | 43 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Donovan McNabb | 2 | 28 | 14.0 | 0 |
| Greg Lewis | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Garcia | 21/32 | 236 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lee Suggs | 15 | 78 | 5.2 | 1 |
| William Green | 14 | 64 | 4.6 | 1 |
| Jeff Garcia | 4 | 21 | 5.3 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
4.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.0%
Expected total
42.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.35
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.78