Closing spread
PHI -8
Total
42
Model margin
+11.1est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Eagles
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.179EPA / play+0.111
- 37.1%Success rate45.2%
- -0.196EPA / dropback+0.165
- -0.140EPA / rush+0.056
- 5.8%Explosive rate10.7%
- -4.22CPOE+6.20
- 28.8%Third-down rate42.4%
- 56.8%Red-zone TD rate64.1%
- 1.09Points / drive2.46
- 2.7%Turnover rate1.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 6–1 since 1999
Meetings average 44.4 points. PHI are 2-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deshaun Watson | 16/23 | 168 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pierre Strong | 8 | 43 | 5.4 | 0 |
| D'Onta Foreman | 10 | 31 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Deshaun Watson | 4 | 17 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Jerome Ford | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Cedric Tillman | 1 | -5 | -5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amari Cooper | 4 | 6 | 42 | 0 |
| Jerry Jeudy | 1 | 3 | 35 | 0 |
| Pierre Strong | 2 | 3 | 35 | 0 |
| David Njoku | 5 | 7 | 31 | 0 |
| D'Onta Foreman | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Jaelon Darden | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Elijah Moore | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 16/25 | 264 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saquon Barkley | 18 | 47 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Jalen Hurts | 14 | 33 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Kenny Gainwell | 3 | 23 | 7.7 | 0 |
| Jahan Dotson | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Brown | 6 | 9 | 116 | 1 |
| Grant Calcaterra | 4 | 4 | 67 | 0 |
| DeVonta Smith | 3 | 4 | 64 | 1 |
| Jahan Dotson | 1 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Saquon Barkley | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Dallas Goedert | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Kenny Gainwell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
2.20%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
76.8%
Expected total
42.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+6.63
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+2.18
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+11.07