2024 · Week 6

Final

Browns

Cleveland

QB Deshaun Watson

16·20

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Jalen Hurts

Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass · 82°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

PHI -8

Total

42

Model margin

+11.1est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Browns

Eagles

Nothing filed.

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • Browns

How each play moved the game.

Eagles winsBrowns wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Brownsedge mapEagles
  • -0.179EPA / play+0.111
  • 37.1%Success rate45.2%
  • -0.196EPA / dropback+0.165
  • -0.140EPA / rush+0.056
  • 5.8%Explosive rate10.7%
  • -4.22CPOE+6.20
  • 28.8%Third-down rate42.4%
  • 56.8%Red-zone TD rate64.1%
  • 1.09Points / drive2.46
  • 2.7%Turnover rate1.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 6–1 since 1999

Meetings average 44.4 points. PHI are 2-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2020 · W11PHI @ CLE17–22CLE
2016 · W1CLE @ PHI10–29PHI
2012 · W1PHI @ CLE17–16PHI
2008 · W15CLE @ PHI10–30PHI
2004 · W7PHI @ CLE34–31PHI
2000 · W15PHI @ CLE35–24PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCLE–PHI
PHIQ1 15:0035Punt0–0
CLEQ1 13:5735Punt0–0
PHIQ1 12:42716Punt0–0
CLEQ1 9:57925Punt0–0
PHIQ1 4:501358Field goal0–3
CLEQ2 13:0231Punt0–3
PHIQ2 12:031084Touchdown0–10
CLEQ2 7:171140Field goal3–10
PHIQ2 1:58538Opp touchdown10–10
PHIQ2 0:1400End of half10–10
CLEQ3 15:00736Missed field goal10–10
PHIQ3 10:2634Punt10–10
CLEQ3 8:5931Punt10–10
PHIQ3 6:47637Field goal10–13
CLEQ3 2:501254Field goal13–13
PHIQ4 9:49470Touchdown13–20
CLEQ4 7:54982Field goal16–20
PHIQ4 3:54764End of half16–20

Box score

Individual performances

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Deshaun Watson16/2316800

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Pierre Strong8435.40
D'Onta Foreman10313.10
Deshaun Watson4174.30
Jerome Ford2147.00
Cedric Tillman1-5-5.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Amari Cooper46420
Jerry Jeudy13350
Pierre Strong23350
David Njoku57310
D'Onta Foreman22160
Jaelon Darden1160
Elijah Moore1130

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jalen Hurts16/2526420

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Saquon Barkley18472.60
Jalen Hurts14332.40
Kenny Gainwell3237.70
Jahan Dotson11313.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
A.J. Brown691161
Grant Calcaterra44670
DeVonta Smith34641
Jahan Dotson13100
Saquon Barkley2270
Dallas Goedert0100
Kenny Gainwell0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +84.6%6.4%2.3%3.0%4.8%3.5%3.6%3.0%2.8%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Browns.

Half-point at risk

2.20%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

76.8%

Expected total

42.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+6.63
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+2.18
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+11.07