Closing spread
CLE -2.5
Total
45.5
Model margin
+3.7est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Browns
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.055EPA / play+0.091
- 41.8%Success rate46.9%
- -0.043EPA / dropback+0.193
- -0.081EPA / rush-0.034
- 7.8%Explosive rate11.2%
- -4.93CPOE+2.55
- 36.0%Third-down rate45.5%
- 67.6%Red-zone TD rate71.8%
- 1.61Points / drive2.32
- 2.6%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 6–1 since 1999
Meetings average 44.4 points. CLE are 5-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Wentz | 21/35 | 235 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miles Sanders | 16 | 66 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Boston Scott | 5 | 24 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Carson Wentz | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Jalen Hurts | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas Goedert | 5 | 6 | 77 | 1 |
| Jalen Reagor | 4 | 5 | 52 | 0 |
| Richard Rodgers | 2 | 2 | 48 | 1 |
| Boston Scott | 3 | 3 | 26 | 0 |
| Miles Sanders | 3 | 5 | 15 | 0 |
| Greg Ward | 3 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
| Travis Fulgham | 1 | 7 | 8 | 0 |
| Alshon Jeffery | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 12/22 | 204 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Chubb | 20 | 114 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Kareem Hunt | 13 | 11 | 0.8 | 1 |
| Baker Mayfield | 6 | 9 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Jarvis Landry | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KhaDarel Hodge | 3 | 5 | 73 | 0 |
| Rashard Higgins | 3 | 4 | 65 | 0 |
| Austin Hooper | 3 | 5 | 33 | 0 |
| Jarvis Landry | 2 | 2 | 23 | 0 |
| Kareem Hunt | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| David Njoku | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
7.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.0%
Expected total
42.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.02
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.73