2020 · Week 11

Final

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Carson Wentz

17·22

Browns

Cleveland

QB Baker Mayfield

FirstEnergy Stadium · outdoors · grass · 38°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

CLE -2.5

Total

45.5

Model margin

+3.7est.

CLE perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Eagles

Browns

Win probability

  • Browns
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

Browns winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Eaglesedge mapBrowns
  • -0.055EPA / play+0.091
  • 41.8%Success rate46.9%
  • -0.043EPA / dropback+0.193
  • -0.081EPA / rush-0.034
  • 7.8%Explosive rate11.2%
  • -4.93CPOE+2.55
  • 36.0%Third-down rate45.5%
  • 67.6%Red-zone TD rate71.8%
  • 1.61Points / drive2.32
  • 2.6%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 6–1 since 1999

Meetings average 44.4 points. CLE are 5-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W6CLE @ PHI16–20PHI
2016 · W1CLE @ PHI10–29PHI
2012 · W1PHI @ CLE17–16PHI
2008 · W15CLE @ PHI10–30PHI
2004 · W7PHI @ CLE34–31PHI
2000 · W15PHI @ CLE35–24PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPHI–CLE
CLEQ1 15:0041Punt0–0
PHIQ1 13:501071Turnover0–0
CLEQ1 7:561482Turnover on downs0–0
PHIQ1 1:09553Opp touchdown0–7
PHIQ2 13:35616Punt0–7
CLEQ2 9:47522Punt0–7
PHIQ2 6:53733Punt0–7
CLEQ2 2:3233Punt0–7
PHIQ2 0:5832Punt0–7
CLEQ2 0:30415Turnover on downs0–7
PHIQ3 15:0035Punt0–7
CLEQ3 12:442-8Turnover6–7
PHIQ3 11:59119Touchdown7–7
CLEQ3 11:53447Field goal7–10
PHIQ3 8:5931Punt7–10
CLEQ3 7:55610Punt7–10
PHIQ3 4:373-2Safety7–12
CLEQ3 3:11725Missed field goal7–12
PHIQ4 13:54638Field goal10–12
CLEQ4 11:24479Touchdown10–19
PHIQ4 9:1340Punt10–19
CLEQ4 8:21948Field goal10–22
PHIQ4 3:49932Turnover10–22
CLEQ4 2:0131Punt10–22
PHIQ4 1:39847Touchdown17–22
CLEQ4 0:3000End of half17–22

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Wentz21/3523522

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Miles Sanders16664.10
Boston Scott5244.80
Carson Wentz3103.30
Jalen Hurts166.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dallas Goedert56771
Jalen Reagor45520
Richard Rodgers22481
Boston Scott33260
Miles Sanders35150
Greg Ward3490
Travis Fulgham1780
Alshon Jeffery0200

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Baker Mayfield12/2220400

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Nick Chubb201145.70
Kareem Hunt13110.81
Baker Mayfield691.50
Jarvis Landry133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
KhaDarel Hodge35730
Rashard Higgins34650
Austin Hooper35330
Jarvis Landry22230
Kareem Hunt11100
David Njoku0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.53.8%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

7.51%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.0%

Expected total

42.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.02
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.73