2000 · Week 15

Final

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Donovan McNabb

35·24

Browns

Cleveland

QB Doug Pederson

Cleveland Browns Stadium · outdoors · grass · 33°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

PHI -14

Total

35.5

Model margin

-3.8est.

CLE perspective

Push chance

2.8%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Browns
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

Browns winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Eaglesedge mapBrowns
  • -0.003EPA / play-0.217
  • 40.3%Success rate31.8%
  • +0.063EPA / dropback-0.208
  • -0.138EPA / rush-0.234
  • 7.5%Explosive rate5.5%
  • 41.3%Third-down rate28.6%
  • 52.6%Red-zone TD rate42.0%
  • 1.62Points / drive0.78
  • 2.5%Turnover rate2.9%
  • -0.085EPA / play allowed+0.048

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 6–1 since 1999

Meetings average 44.4 points. CLE are 5-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W6CLE @ PHI16–20PHI
2020 · W11PHI @ CLE17–22CLE
2016 · W1CLE @ PHI10–29PHI
2012 · W1PHI @ CLE17–16PHI
2008 · W15CLE @ PHI10–30PHI
2004 · W7PHI @ CLE34–31PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPHI–CLE
CLEQ1 15:001140Punt0–0
PHIQ1 8:0110103Touchdown7–0
CLEQ1 3:02779Touchdown7–7
PHIQ2 14:2000Touchdown7–7
CLEQ2 14:07842Touchdown7–14
PHIQ2 10:13576Touchdown14–14
CLEQ2 8:0634Punt14–14
PHIQ2 6:543-20Punt14–14
CLEQ2 5:4438Punt14–14
PHIQ2 4:171075Touchdown21–14
CLEQ2 1:04631End of half21–14
PHIQ3 15:00763Touchdown28–14
CLEQ3 12:1324Turnover28–14
PHIQ3 11:1331Punt28–14
CLEQ3 10:16437Turnover28–14
PHIQ3 8:14998Touchdown35–14
CLEQ3 4:031667Field goal35–17
PHIQ4 11:222-20Turnover35–17
CLEQ4 9:3930Touchdown35–24
PHIQ4 8:5432Punt35–24
CLEQ4 7:44435Turnover35–24
PHIQ4 5:56514Punt35–24
CLEQ4 3:261071Turnover35–24
PHIQ4 0:431-1End of half35–24

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Donovan McNabb23/3639040

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Darnell Autry10282.81
Donovan McNabb3124.00
Stanley Pritchett210.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chad Lewis561000
Charles Johnson57932
Torrance Small712922
Todd Pinkston24560
Cecil Martin23300
Stanley Pritchett11110
Jeff Thomason1180
Darnell Autry0200

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Doug Pederson29/4030912
Kevin Johnson1/32301

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Travis Prentice17462.72
Dennis Northcutt7375.30
Jamel White3155.00
Doug Pederson331.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
David Patten7131031
Kevin Johnson67760
Dennis Northcutt57440
Aaron Shea34330
Travis Prentice44290
Mark Campbell33170
Bobby Brown1280

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -142.8%3.1%4.9%3.2%7.5%

Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

2.83%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

39.1%

Expected total

41.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-6.32
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-3.75