Closing spread
PHI -14
Total
35.5
Model margin
-3.8est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
2.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Browns
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.003EPA / play-0.217
- 40.3%Success rate31.8%
- +0.063EPA / dropback-0.208
- -0.138EPA / rush-0.234
- 7.5%Explosive rate5.5%
- 41.3%Third-down rate28.6%
- 52.6%Red-zone TD rate42.0%
- 1.62Points / drive0.78
- 2.5%Turnover rate2.9%
- -0.085EPA / play allowed+0.048
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 6–1 since 1999
Meetings average 44.4 points. CLE are 5-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 23/36 | 390 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darnell Autry | 10 | 28 | 2.8 | 1 |
| Donovan McNabb | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Stanley Pritchett | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Lewis | 5 | 6 | 100 | 0 |
| Charles Johnson | 5 | 7 | 93 | 2 |
| Torrance Small | 7 | 12 | 92 | 2 |
| Todd Pinkston | 2 | 4 | 56 | 0 |
| Cecil Martin | 2 | 3 | 30 | 0 |
| Stanley Pritchett | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Jeff Thomason | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Darnell Autry | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Pederson | 29/40 | 309 | 1 | 2 |
| Kevin Johnson | 1/3 | 23 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Prentice | 17 | 46 | 2.7 | 2 |
| Dennis Northcutt | 7 | 37 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Jamel White | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Doug Pederson | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Patten | 7 | 13 | 103 | 1 |
| Kevin Johnson | 6 | 7 | 76 | 0 |
| Dennis Northcutt | 5 | 7 | 44 | 0 |
| Aaron Shea | 3 | 4 | 33 | 0 |
| Travis Prentice | 4 | 4 | 29 | 0 |
| Mark Campbell | 3 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Bobby Brown | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
2.83%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
39.1%
Expected total
41.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-6.32
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-3.75