Closing spread
PHI -9
Total
42
Model margin
+3.1est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
0.9%est.
Win probability
- Browns
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.073EPA / play-0.068
- 42.7%Success rate39.6%
- -0.006EPA / dropback-0.069
- -0.208EPA / rush-0.066
- 8.8%Explosive rate7.9%
- +0.51CPOE-4.22
- 37.1%Third-down rate30.6%
- 49.2%Red-zone TD rate58.2%
- 1.18Points / drive1.48
- 3.0%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 6–1 since 1999
Meetings average 44.4 points. CLE are 5-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Vick | 29/56 | 317 | 2 | 4 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeSean McCoy | 20 | 110 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Mike Vick | 7 | 32 | 4.6 | 0 |
| DeSean Jackson | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Bryce Brown | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Maclin | 7 | 14 | 96 | 1 |
| DeSean Jackson | 4 | 11 | 77 | 0 |
| Brent Celek | 4 | 8 | 65 | 0 |
| Jason Avant | 4 | 5 | 27 | 0 |
| LeSean McCoy | 6 | 9 | 26 | 0 |
| Clay Harbor | 3 | 6 | 16 | 1 |
| Damaris Johnson | 1 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Weeden | 12/35 | 118 | 0 | 4 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Richardson | 19 | 39 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Travis Benjamin | 1 | 35 | 35.0 | 0 |
| Brandon Weeden | 2 | 25 | 12.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mohamed Massaquoi | 3 | 8 | 41 | 0 |
| Josh Gordon | 2 | 4 | 32 | 0 |
| Brandon Jackson | 2 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Travis Benjamin | 1 | 6 | 12 | 0 |
| Benjamin Watson | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Trent Richardson | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Greg Little | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Cameron | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Owen Marecic | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Alex Smith | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
0.93%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.4%
Expected total
45.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.63
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.12