2012 · Week 1

Final

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Michael Vick

17·16

Browns

Cleveland

QB Brandon Weeden

Cleveland Browns Stadium · outdoors · grass · 68°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

PHI -9

Total

42

Model margin

+3.1est.

CLE perspective

Push chance

0.9%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Eagles

Browns

Win probability

  • Browns
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

Browns winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Eaglesedge mapBrowns
  • -0.073EPA / play-0.068
  • 42.7%Success rate39.6%
  • -0.006EPA / dropback-0.069
  • -0.208EPA / rush-0.066
  • 8.8%Explosive rate7.9%
  • +0.51CPOE-4.22
  • 37.1%Third-down rate30.6%
  • 49.2%Red-zone TD rate58.2%
  • 1.18Points / drive1.48
  • 3.0%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 6–1 since 1999

Meetings average 44.4 points. CLE are 5-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W6CLE @ PHI16–20PHI
2020 · W11PHI @ CLE17–22CLE
2016 · W1CLE @ PHI10–29PHI
2008 · W15CLE @ PHI10–30PHI
2004 · W7PHI @ CLE34–31PHI
2000 · W15PHI @ CLE35–24PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPHI–CLE
PHIQ1 15:00735Turnover0–0
CLEQ1 11:10526Field goal0–3
PHIQ1 9:121145Turnover0–3
CLEQ1 4:3244Punt0–3
PHIQ1 2:05655Field goal3–3
CLEQ2 14:58653Turnover3–3
PHIQ2 12:1138Punt3–3
CLEQ2 11:0038Punt3–3
PHIQ2 9:27520Punt3–3
CLEQ2 7:223-1Turnover3–3
PHIQ2 6:2837Punt3–3
CLEQ2 4:47610Punt3–3
PHIQ2 2:37636Punt3–3
CLEQ2 1:2638Punt3–3
PHIQ2 0:49574Touchdown10–3
CLEQ2 0:17345End of half10–3
CLEQ3 15:00518Punt10–3
PHIQ3 11:593-5Punt10–3
CLEQ3 10:5210Turnover10–3
PHIQ3 10:46720Turnover10–3
CLEQ3 7:1967Field goal10–6
PHIQ3 4:5738Punt10–6
CLEQ3 3:2030Punt10–6
PHIQ3 2:57428Turnover10–6
CLEQ3 1:53613Field goal10–9
PHIQ4 14:1510Opp touchdown10–16
PHIQ4 13:591053Missed field goal10–16
CLEQ4 9:01619Punt10–16
PHIQ4 6:251776Touchdown17–16
CLEQ4 1:1810Turnover17–16
PHIQ4 1:0500End of half17–16

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mike Vick29/5631724

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeSean McCoy201105.50
Mike Vick7324.60
DeSean Jackson155.00
Bryce Brown231.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jeremy Maclin714961
DeSean Jackson411770
Brent Celek48650
Jason Avant45270
LeSean McCoy69260
Clay Harbor36161
Damaris Johnson13100

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brandon Weeden12/3511804

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Trent Richardson19392.10
Travis Benjamin13535.00
Brandon Weeden22512.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mohamed Massaquoi38410
Josh Gordon24320
Brandon Jackson24200
Travis Benjamin16120
Benjamin Watson2290
Trent Richardson1350
Greg Little0400
Jordan Cameron0100
Owen Marecic0200
Alex Smith11-10

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -93.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%

Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

0.93%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.4%

Expected total

45.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.63
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.12