Closing spread
IND -16.5
Total
44.5
Model margin
+10.2est.
IND perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Colts
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.162EPA / play+0.114
- 36.3%Success rate48.1%
- -0.203EPA / dropback+0.230
- -0.092EPA / rush-0.087
- 8.2%Explosive rate6.4%
- -3.61CPOE+4.76
- 28.7%Third-down rate50.8%
- 72.0%Red-zone TD rate68.4%
- 1.21Points / drive2.14
- 2.9%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 54.9 points. IND are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | DET–IND |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IND | Q1 15:00 | 14 | 73 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| DET | Q1 7:38 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 0–7 |
| DET | Q1 6:00 | 3 | 8 | Field goal | 3–7 |
| IND | Q1 4:45 | 6 | 22 | Punt | 3–7 |
| DET | Q1 2:29 | 7 | 52 | Turnover | 3–7 |
| IND | Q2 14:55 | 5 | 15 | Punt | 3–7 |
| DET | Q2 11:41 | 6 | 11 | Punt | 3–7 |
| IND | Q2 8:42 | 9 | 38 | Touchdown | 3–14 |
| DET | Q2 5:29 | 3 | 74 | Touchdown | 10–14 |
| IND | Q2 3:36 | 8 | 78 | Touchdown | 10–21 |
| DET | Q2 0:47 | 4 | 19 | End of half | 10–21 |
| DET | Q3 15:00 | 5 | 17 | Punt | 10–21 |
| DET | Q3 12:15 | 5 | 10 | Field goal | 13–21 |
| IND | Q3 10:00 | 9 | 41 | Punt | 13–21 |
| DET | Q3 5:31 | 14 | 90 | Touchdown | 21–21 |
| IND | Q4 12:52 | 7 | 88 | Touchdown | 21–28 |
| DET | Q4 8:39 | 7 | 25 | Punt | 21–28 |
| IND | Q4 5:21 | 10 | 67 | Field goal | 21–31 |
| DET | Q4 0:39 | 1 | 11 | Turnover | 21–31 |
| IND | Q4 0:23 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 21–31 |
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Orlovsky | 23/34 | 233 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Smith | 20 | 88 | 4.4 | 1 |
| Rudi Johnson | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 28/37 | 318 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dominic Rhodes | 20 | 86 | 4.3 | 2 |
| Chad Simpson | 7 | 17 | 2.4 | 1 |
| Peyton Manning | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
2.96%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
74.9%
Expected total
45.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+7.74
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+10.22