Closing spread
IND -16.5
Total
44.5
Model margin
+10.2est.
IND perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Colts
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.162EPA / play+0.114
- 36.3%Success rate48.1%
- -0.203EPA / dropback+0.230
- -0.092EPA / rush-0.087
- 8.2%Explosive rate6.4%
- -3.61CPOE+4.76
- 28.7%Third-down rate50.8%
- 72.0%Red-zone TD rate68.4%
- 1.21Points / drive2.14
- 2.9%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 54.9 points. IND are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Orlovsky | 23/34 | 233 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Smith | 20 | 88 | 4.4 | 1 |
| Rudi Johnson | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 28/37 | 318 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dominic Rhodes | 20 | 86 | 4.3 | 2 |
| Chad Simpson | 7 | 17 | 2.4 | 1 |
| Peyton Manning | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
2.96%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
74.9%
Expected total
45.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+7.74
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+10.22