Closing spread
IND -3.5
Total
49
Model margin
-3.9est.
DET perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Lions
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.083EPA / play+0.014
- 46.8%Success rate45.5%
- +0.181EPA / dropback+0.103
- -0.048EPA / rush-0.156
- 11.3%Explosive rate8.4%
- -0.03CPOE-1.27
- 39.7%Third-down rate41.6%
- 58.8%Red-zone TD rate63.0%
- 2.35Points / drive2.14
- 1.4%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 54.9 points. DET are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philip Rivers | 23/33 | 262 | 3 | 0 |
| Zach Pascal | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Wilkins | 20 | 89 | 4.5 | 1 |
| Jonathan Taylor | 11 | 22 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Nyheim Hines | 5 | 8 | 1.6 | 0 |
| Trey Burton | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 1 |
| Philip Rivers | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nyheim Hines | 3 | 5 | 54 | 2 |
| Zach Pascal | 3 | 6 | 44 | 0 |
| Marcus Johnson | 2 | 4 | 39 | 0 |
| Mo Alie-Cox | 3 | 4 | 37 | 0 |
| Jordan Wilkins | 1 | 1 | 24 | 0 |
| Jack Doyle | 2 | 3 | 18 | 1 |
| Ashton Dulin | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| T.Y. Hilton | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Trey Burton | 3 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
| Jonathan Taylor | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Michael Pittman | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 24/42 | 336 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Agnew | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 5 | 7 | 1.4 | 0 |
| D'Andre Swift | 6 | 1 | 0.2 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marvin Hall | 4 | 7 | 113 | 0 |
| T.J. Hockenson | 7 | 10 | 65 | 0 |
| Danny Amendola | 3 | 4 | 54 | 0 |
| Marvin Jones | 3 | 7 | 39 | 2 |
| Jesse James | 1 | 1 | 23 | 0 |
| D'Andre Swift | 3 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Kerryon Johnson | 2 | 2 | 15 | 1 |
| Adrian Peterson | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Kenny Golladay | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
7.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
38.8%
Expected total
48.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-5.02
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin-3.87