2020 · Week 8

Final

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Philip Rivers

41·21

Lions

Detroit

QB Matthew Stafford

Ford Field · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

IND -3.5

Total

49

Model margin

-3.9est.

DET perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Colts

Lions

Win probability

  • Lions
  • Colts

How each play moved the game.

Lions winsColts wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Coltsedge mapLions
  • +0.083EPA / play+0.014
  • 46.8%Success rate45.5%
  • +0.181EPA / dropback+0.103
  • -0.048EPA / rush-0.156
  • 11.3%Explosive rate8.4%
  • -0.03CPOE-1.27
  • 39.7%Third-down rate41.6%
  • 58.8%Red-zone TD rate63.0%
  • 2.35Points / drive2.14
  • 1.4%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 5–2 since 1999

Meetings average 54.9 points. DET are 3-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W12DET @ IND24–6DET
2016 · W1DET @ IND39–35DET
2012 · W13IND @ DET35–33IND
2008 · W15DET @ IND21–31IND
2004 · W12IND @ DET41–9IND
2000 · W9DET @ IND18–30IND

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultIND–DET
INDQ1 15:00517Punt0–0
DETQ1 11:3831Punt0–0
INDQ1 10:46920Punt0–0
DETQ1 6:19232Touchdown0–7
INDQ1 5:42825Punt0–7
DETQ1 0:1736Punt0–7
INDQ2 13:23461Touchdown7–7
DETQ2 11:1047Punt7–7
INDQ2 9:211058Touchdown14–7
DETQ2 5:323-11Punt14–7
INDQ2 3:46648Touchdown20–7
DETQ2 0:56645Missed field goal20–7
DETQ3 15:00868Touchdown20–14
INDQ3 11:0839Punt20–14
DETQ3 8:53626Punt20–14
INDQ3 6:0030Punt20–14
DETQ3 5:30624Turnover20–14
INDQ3 2:27919Touchdown28–14
DETQ4 13:3410Opp touchdown35–14
DETQ4 13:26571Touchdown35–21
INDQ4 12:151278Touchdown41–21
DETQ4 7:011357Turnover on downs41–21
INDQ4 3:48533End of half41–21

Box score

Individual performances

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Philip Rivers23/3326230
Zach Pascal0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jordan Wilkins20894.51
Jonathan Taylor11222.00
Nyheim Hines581.60
Trey Burton122.01
Philip Rivers2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Nyheim Hines35542
Zach Pascal36440
Marcus Johnson24390
Mo Alie-Cox34370
Jordan Wilkins11240
Jack Doyle23181
Ashton Dulin11130
T.Y. Hilton2290
Trey Burton3490
Jonathan Taylor2290
Michael Pittman1160

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford24/4233631

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jamal Agnew11111.00
Matthew Stafford11010.00
Adrian Peterson571.40
D'Andre Swift610.20

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marvin Hall471130
T.J. Hockenson710650
Danny Amendola34540
Marvin Jones37392
Jesse James11230
D'Andre Swift34220
Kerryon Johnson22151
Adrian Peterson1150
Kenny Golladay0400

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.52.8%3.2%4.9%3.2%7.5%6.7%3.7%

Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Colts.

Half-point at risk

7.51%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

38.8%

Expected total

48.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-5.02
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin-3.87