2000 · Week 9

Final

Lions

Detroit

QB Charlie Batch

18·30

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Peyton Manning

RCA Dome · dome · astroturf

Closing spread

IND -7

Total

47

Model margin

+4.1est.

IND perspective

Push chance

4.9%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Colts
  • Lions

How each play moved the game.

Colts winsLions wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Lionsedge mapColts
  • -0.143EPA / play+0.123
  • 36.6%Success rate45.8%
  • -0.141EPA / dropback+0.249
  • -0.146EPA / rush-0.069
  • 6.7%Explosive rate9.0%
  • 31.8%Third-down rate46.8%
  • 47.8%Red-zone TD rate62.8%
  • 1.23Points / drive2.04
  • 2.8%Turnover rate2.5%
  • -0.110EPA / play allowed+0.005

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 5–2 since 1999

Meetings average 54.9 points. IND are 4-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W12DET @ IND24–6DET
2020 · W8IND @ DET41–21IND
2016 · W1DET @ IND39–35DET
2012 · W13IND @ DET35–33IND
2008 · W15DET @ IND21–31IND
2004 · W12IND @ DET41–9IND

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDET–IND
DETQ100Punt0–0
DETQ1 15:0030Punt0–0
INDQ1 13:52942Punt0–0
DETQ1 9:06419Punt0–0
INDQ1 6:50791Touchdown0–7
DETQ1 2:361-7Turnover0–7
INDQ1 2:1617Turnover0–7
DETQ1 2:09421Punt0–7
INDQ1 0:00417Punt0–7
DETQ2 13:0134Punt0–7
INDQ2 11:31850Touchdown0–14
DETQ2 6:2635Punt0–14
INDQ2 5:1635Punt0–16
DETQ2 3:011-9Safety0–16
INDQ2 2:55955Touchdown0–23
DETQ2 0:42660Missed field goal0–23
INDQ3 15:00712Turnover0–23
DETQ3 11:28552Touchdown8–23
INDQ3 9:0500Turnover8–23
DETQ3 8:53418Turnover8–23
INDQ3 6:34632Punt8–23
DETQ3 2:533-1Field goal11–23
INDQ3 2:0600Punt11–23
DETQ3 2:03315Punt11–23
INDQ3 0:1839Punt11–23
DETQ4 14:1135Turnover11–23
INDQ4 13:05533Turnover11–23
DETQ4 10:16826Punt11–23
INDQ4 6:45342Turnover11–23
DETQ4 5:16752Touchdown18–23
INDQ4 2:3230Punt18–23
DETQ4 1:5910Turnover18–23
INDQ4 1:54225Touchdown18–30
DETQ4 1:42668End of half18–30

Box score

Individual performances

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Charlie Batch18/3919012

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Stewart16633.90
Charlie Batch46215.50
Mario Bates3299.71

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
James Stewart35660
Herman Moore27311
Larry Foster44240
Mario Bates22200
David Sloan47200
Brock Olivo11170
Johnnie Morton1970
Brian Stablein1150
Walter Rasby0100

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Peyton Manning22/3328832

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Edgerrin James311394.51

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marvin Harrison9121091
Marcus Pollard34741
Ken Dilger56521
Terrence Wilkins25270
Edgerrin James23240
Jerome Pathon0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +73.7%6.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Lions.

Half-point at risk

4.88%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.1%

Expected total

45.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.81
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin+4.13