Closing spread
IND -7
Total
47
Model margin
+4.1est.
IND perspective
Push chance
4.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Colts
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.143EPA / play+0.123
- 36.6%Success rate45.8%
- -0.141EPA / dropback+0.249
- -0.146EPA / rush-0.069
- 6.7%Explosive rate9.0%
- 31.8%Third-down rate46.8%
- 47.8%Red-zone TD rate62.8%
- 1.23Points / drive2.04
- 2.8%Turnover rate2.5%
- -0.110EPA / play allowed+0.005
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 54.9 points. IND are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Batch | 18/39 | 190 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Stewart | 16 | 63 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Charlie Batch | 4 | 62 | 15.5 | 0 |
| Mario Bates | 3 | 29 | 9.7 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Stewart | 3 | 5 | 66 | 0 |
| Herman Moore | 2 | 7 | 31 | 1 |
| Larry Foster | 4 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Mario Bates | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| David Sloan | 4 | 7 | 20 | 0 |
| Brock Olivo | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Johnnie Morton | 1 | 9 | 7 | 0 |
| Brian Stablein | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Walter Rasby | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 22/33 | 288 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin James | 31 | 139 | 4.5 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marvin Harrison | 9 | 12 | 109 | 1 |
| Marcus Pollard | 3 | 4 | 74 | 1 |
| Ken Dilger | 5 | 6 | 52 | 1 |
| Terrence Wilkins | 2 | 5 | 27 | 0 |
| Edgerrin James | 2 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Jerome Pathon | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
4.88%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.1%
Expected total
45.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.81
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+4.13