Closing spread
DET -7
Total
51.5
Model margin
+1.3est.
DET perspective
Push chance
4.6%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Lions
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.035EPA / play-0.004
- 45.1%Success rate45.2%
- +0.094EPA / dropback+0.056
- -0.077EPA / rush-0.131
- 9.1%Explosive rate8.6%
- -4.46CPOE-2.29
- 42.3%Third-down rate41.4%
- 59.8%Red-zone TD rate61.9%
- 1.62Points / drive1.65
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 54.9 points. DET are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Luck | 24/54 | 391 | 4 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vick Ballard | 9 | 41 | 4.6 | 1 |
| Andrew Luck | 3 | 33 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Donald Brown | 6 | 13 | 2.2 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Y. Hilton | 6 | 12 | 100 | 0 |
| Donnie Avery | 5 | 14 | 91 | 2 |
| Reggie Wayne | 4 | 9 | 51 | 0 |
| Dwayne Allen | 2 | 5 | 50 | 0 |
| LaVon Brazill | 1 | 4 | 42 | 1 |
| Coby Fleener | 1 | 2 | 26 | 1 |
| Vick Ballard | 3 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Donald Brown | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 27/46 | 313 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joique Bell | 7 | 81 | 11.6 | 0 |
| Mikel Leshoure | 21 | 57 | 2.7 | 1 |
| Matthew Stafford | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvin Johnson | 13 | 20 | 171 | 1 |
| Tony Scheffler | 3 | 5 | 55 | 0 |
| Brandon Pettigrew | 3 | 8 | 43 | 1 |
| Joique Bell | 3 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Mikel Leshoure | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Will Heller | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Ryan Broyles | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Kevin Smith | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Mike Thomas | 1 | 4 | -1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
4.60%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.7%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.39
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+1.33