2012 · Week 13

Final

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Andrew Luck

35·33

Lions

Detroit

QB Matthew Stafford

Ford Field · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

DET -7

Total

51.5

Model margin

+1.3est.

DET perspective

Push chance

4.6%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Colts

Lions

Win probability

  • Lions
  • Colts

How each play moved the game.

Lions winsColts wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Coltsedge mapLions
  • +0.035EPA / play-0.004
  • 45.1%Success rate45.2%
  • +0.094EPA / dropback+0.056
  • -0.077EPA / rush-0.131
  • 9.1%Explosive rate8.6%
  • -4.46CPOE-2.29
  • 42.3%Third-down rate41.4%
  • 59.8%Red-zone TD rate61.9%
  • 1.62Points / drive1.65
  • 2.2%Turnover rate2.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 5–2 since 1999

Meetings average 54.9 points. DET are 3-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W12DET @ IND24–6DET
2020 · W8IND @ DET41–21IND
2016 · W1DET @ IND39–35DET
2008 · W15DET @ IND21–31IND
2004 · W12IND @ DET41–9IND
2000 · W9DET @ IND18–30IND

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultIND–DET
DETQ1 15:00414Punt0–0
INDQ1 13:3231Punt0–0
DETQ1 12:34624Field goal0–3
INDQ1 8:49680Touchdown7–3
DETQ1 6:29887Touchdown7–10
INDQ1 1:4833Punt7–10
DETQ1 0:17875Touchdown7–17
INDQ2 11:27470Touchdown14–17
DETQ2 9:4731Punt14–17
INDQ2 8:3220Turnover14–17
DETQ2 8:1635Field goal14–20
INDQ2 7:173-4Punt14–20
DETQ2 6:15631Field goal14–23
INDQ2 3:46623Turnover14–23
DETQ2 1:50316Turnover14–23
INDQ2 1:0538Punt14–23
DETQ2 0:4413End of half14–23
INDQ3 15:00780Touchdown21–23
DETQ3 12:05833Punt21–23
INDQ3 7:17310Punt21–23
DETQ3 5:5033Punt21–23
INDQ3 4:5034Punt21–23
DETQ3 3:56665Touchdown21–30
INDQ3 0:02511Punt21–30
DETQ4 13:2538Punt21–30
INDQ4 11:443-12Punt21–30
DETQ4 10:50567Field goal21–33
INDQ4 8:41740Turnover21–33
DETQ4 6:40510Punt21–33
INDQ4 4:02870Touchdown28–33
DETQ4 2:3959Punt28–33
INDQ4 1:07975Touchdown35–33

Box score

Individual performances

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andrew Luck24/5439143

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Vick Ballard9414.61
Andrew Luck33311.00
Donald Brown6132.20

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
T.Y. Hilton6121000
Donnie Avery514912
Reggie Wayne49510
Dwayne Allen25500
LaVon Brazill14421
Coby Fleener12261
Vick Ballard34210
Donald Brown22100

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford27/4631321

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Joique Bell78111.60
Mikel Leshoure21572.71
Matthew Stafford100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Calvin Johnson13201711
Tony Scheffler35550
Brandon Pettigrew38431
Joique Bell33210
Mikel Leshoure23160
Will Heller1150
Ryan Broyles1130
Kevin Smith0100
Mike Thomas14-10

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +74.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Colts.

Half-point at risk

4.60%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.7%

Expected total

43.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.39
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin+1.33