2004 · Week 12

Final

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Peyton Manning

41·9

Lions

Detroit

QB Joey Harrington

Ford Field · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

IND -8.5

Total

54

Model margin

-0.4est.

DET perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Lions
  • Colts

How each play moved the game.

Lions winsColts wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Coltsedge mapLions
  • +0.239EPA / play-0.071
  • 53.8%Success rate39.8%
  • +0.412EPA / dropback-0.086
  • -0.005EPA / rush-0.046
  • 11.3%Explosive rate9.0%
  • 44.4%Third-down rate32.3%
  • 74.8%Red-zone TD rate51.0%
  • 2.73Points / drive1.23
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.9%
  • +0.033EPA / play allowed+0.013

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 5–2 since 1999

Meetings average 54.9 points. DET are 3-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W12DET @ IND24–6DET
2020 · W8IND @ DET41–21IND
2016 · W1DET @ IND39–35DET
2012 · W13IND @ DET35–33IND
2008 · W15DET @ IND21–31IND
2000 · W9DET @ IND18–30IND

Box score

Individual performances

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Peyton Manning23/2823660
Jim Sorgi1/3700

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Edgerrin James231054.60
Peyton Manning144.00
Dominic Rhodes242.00
James Mungro242.00
Reggie Wayne1-4-4.00

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joey Harrington14/2315600
Mike McMahon11/157701

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kevin Jones12998.30
Shawn Bryson7517.30
Mike McMahon2189.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -8.52.7%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.4%

Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Colts.

Half-point at risk

1.94%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

48.1%

Expected total

46.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.92
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.36