Closing spread
IND -8.5
Total
54
Model margin
-0.4est.
DET perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Lions
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.239EPA / play-0.071
- 53.8%Success rate39.8%
- +0.412EPA / dropback-0.086
- -0.005EPA / rush-0.046
- 11.3%Explosive rate9.0%
- 44.4%Third-down rate32.3%
- 74.8%Red-zone TD rate51.0%
- 2.73Points / drive1.23
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.9%
- +0.033EPA / play allowed+0.013
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 54.9 points. DET are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | IND–DET |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IND | Q1 15:00 | 9 | 74 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| DET | Q1 10:16 | 7 | 58 | Field goal | 7–3 |
| IND | Q1 7:16 | 9 | 50 | Touchdown | 13–3 |
| DET | Q1 4:20 | 7 | 55 | Field goal | 13–6 |
| IND | Q1 0:49 | 4 | 8 | Punt | 13–6 |
| DET | Q2 14:45 | 11 | 49 | Missed field goal | 13–6 |
| IND | Q2 8:28 | 5 | 20 | Punt | 13–6 |
| DET | Q2 6:17 | 3 | 39 | Turnover | 13–6 |
| IND | Q2 4:19 | 5 | 47 | Touchdown | 20–6 |
| DET | Q2 2:20 | 2 | 5 | Turnover | 20–6 |
| IND | Q2 1:51 | 3 | 31 | Touchdown | 27–6 |
| DET | Q2 0:50 | 5 | 51 | Field goal | 27–9 |
| DET | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 27–9 |
| IND | Q3 13:41 | 8 | 59 | Touchdown | 34–9 |
| DET | Q3 9:18 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 34–9 |
| IND | Q3 8:00 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 34–9 |
| IND | Q3 5:27 | 6 | 36 | Touchdown | 41–9 |
| DET | Q3 2:11 | 2 | 15 | Turnover | 41–9 |
| IND | Q3 1:15 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 41–9 |
| DET | Q4 14:43 | 8 | 33 | Punt | 41–9 |
| IND | Q4 9:52 | 5 | 12 | Punt | 41–9 |
| DET | Q4 6:11 | 7 | 30 | Turnover on downs | 41–9 |
| IND | Q4 2:57 | 4 | 8 | Turnover on downs | 41–9 |
| DET | Q4 1:05 | 5 | 40 | Turnover | 41–9 |
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 23/28 | 236 | 6 | 0 |
| Jim Sorgi | 1/3 | 7 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin James | 23 | 105 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Dominic Rhodes | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| James Mungro | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Reggie Wayne | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joey Harrington | 14/23 | 156 | 0 | 0 |
| Mike McMahon | 11/15 | 77 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Jones | 12 | 99 | 8.3 | 0 |
| Shawn Bryson | 7 | 51 | 7.3 | 0 |
| Mike McMahon | 2 | 18 | 9.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
1.94%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.1%
Expected total
46.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.92
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.36